Morning Call Jul 22nd, 2026

The NY October 2026 raw sugar contract rose 6 points on Tuesday, closing at US$ 14.88 c/lb, in a technical rebound following the previous session's decline.
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol consumption reached 1.833 billion liters in June (+10.9% YoY), totaling 10.411 billion liters since January (-1.4% YoY).
 

Brazil: an estimated 28.9% of the flex-fuel fleet was fueled with hydrous ethanol, unchanged from May and 1.0 p.p. above June 2025.
 

Brazil: according to DATAGRO, Brazilian ethanol production is projected to reach a record 42.64 billion liters in 26/27, including 13 billion liters produced from corn.
 

CS Brazil: for mill inventories to remain below the five-year average by the end of the season, hydrous ethanol consumption would need to approach 2 billion liters/month since April, assuming E32 blend to start in August and ethanol exports maintained at last year´s level.
 

Brazil: this means that at least 30%-31% of the flex-fuel vehicle fleet would need to be fueled with hydrous ethanol.
 

Brazil: gasoline C (E30) consumption reached 3.872 billion liters in June (+4.5% YoY), totaling 23.524 billion liters since January (+4.1% YoY), a record for the period.
 

Brazil: total Otto-cycle fuel consumption reached 30.833 billion liters of gasoline equivalent between January and June (+3.8% YoY), also a record for the period.
 

Brazil: ethanol's (anhydrous + hydrous) share of the Brazilian Otto-cycle fuel market increased 0.2 p.p. YoY to 47.4% in June, the highest monthly level since April 2021.
 

CS Brazil: the ethanol market in São Paulo remains illiquid with distributors purchasing only for inventory replenishment and some mills withdrawing offers at current price levels.
 

CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol at the producer level traded at R$ 2.0950/liter on Wednesday, down 2.6% WoW, while anhydrous ethanol fell 4.0% WoW to R$ 2.4078/liter, both ex-mill net of taxes.
 

CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), the CIF price of hydrous ethanol fell 1.28% WoW to R$ 2.2061/liter, excluding taxes, according to the DATAGRO Price Reporting Agency (PRA).
 

CS Brazil: on an equivalent basis, hydrous ethanol was quoted at US$ 14.70 c/lb FOB Santos raw sugar equivalent (Ribeirão Preto basis), while export VHP sugar closed at US$ 16.80 c/lb FOB Santos, widening the spread in favor of sugar to 210 points.
 

China: sugar imports reached 280 k mt in June (-33.3% YoY), totaling 2.910 mmt since October 2025 (+15.8% YoY).
 

Indonesia: the government plans to introduce a nationwide mandatory E10 gasoline blend in 2027 as part of its strategy to reduce fuel imports.
 

Australia: sugarcane crushing in the 26/27 season reached 4.970 mmt through July 12 (-4.6% YoY), while raw sugar production totaled 688.8 k mt (+4.0% YoY).