Analysis DATAGRO
NY #11: the raw sugar market started the week sideways, extending Friday's corrective move — October 2026 contract edged down 1 point to US$ 14.82 c/lb. Comfortable global trade flow and weak physical demand continue to weigh on NY, while oil risk premium and weather risks — above-normal rainfall in CS Brazil and weak monsoon in India — should prevent steeper losses in the near term.
CS Brazil: wet weather caused nearly 4.5 lost crushing days, pushing 2H June crushing down 28.4% YoY to 31.9 mmt — the worst result for this fortnight in 13 years.
CS Brazil: cumulative crushing since April 1 reached 216.48 mmt through July 1, still 4.5% above the same period of the 25/26 crop.
CS Brazil: industrial yield also took a hit, falling 4.3% YoY to 125.86 kg/tc in 2H June, impacted by the rainy conditions.
CS Brazil: sugar mix dropped 9.8 p.p. YoY to 43.08% in the 2H June, reflecting both relative prices and reduced crystallization capacity caused by the rains.
CS Brazil: sugar production totaled 1.61 mmt in 2H June, down 44.2% YoY — bringing the cumulative total since April 1 to 10.73 mmt (-12.7% YoY).
CS Brazil: ethanol production fell 13.1% YoY to 1.705 billion liters in 2H June, of which 392 million liters from corn (+3.1% YoY).
CS Brazil: rainfall is expected across cane areas in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo from Thursday (July 23), varying between 20 mm and 60 mm through Saturday (July 25).
CS Brazil: rainfall probabilities remain low in Minas Gerais, Goiás and Mato Grosso, while temperatures are expected to stay elevated, with highs above 30°C.
Brazil: sugar exports totaled 1.62 mmt in the third week of July, averaging 124.3 k mt/day (-20.3% YoY), according to preliminary SECEX data.
Mexico: cane crushing reached 49.6 mmt in the 25/26 season (+8.3% YoY) until July 11, while sugar production totaled 5.32 mmt (+11.5% YoY).
Philippines: cane crushing in the 25/26 season reached 23.07 mmt until June 28 (-10.5% YoY).
Philippines: raw sugar production totaled 1.848 mmt (-10.6% YoY) until June 28, while white sugar production reached 669 k mt (+13.9% YoY).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO CBios Report.