Morning Call Jul 20th, 2026

The NY raw sugar October 2026 gained 39 points to US$ 14.83 c/lb, supported by higher crude oil prices, which added a risk premium to the market, but still ended the week 5 points lower.
 

CS Brazil: Southeast region recorded average rainfall of just 5.4 mm during the first half of July.
 

CS Brazil: in São Paulo rainfall totaled 8.4 mm, equivalent to 16.7% of the expected volume for the period, while Minas Gerais received only 1.0 mm, or 10.0% of the climatological average.
 

CS Brazil: in Center-West weather also remained stable, with scattered and poorly distributed rainfall. Average precipitation reached 5.0 mm, equivalent to 41.2% of the historical average for July.
 

CS Brazil: faster crushing is increasing short-term sugar availability and keeping pressure on VHP prices for prompt shipment and August loading at the Port of Santos, with discounts ranging from 20 to 40 points.
 

CS Brazil: further harvesting delays could increase the risk of left-over cane, with part of the crop remaining in the field to be processed next season.
 

London #5: according to ICE Futures, physical delivery against the August 2026 white sugar contract totaled 293,050 mt, equivalent to 5,861 lots.
 

London #5: Thailand accounted for 220 k mt, followed by Brazil (30 k mt), Vietnam (25 k mt), Guatemala (9 k mt), China (5 k mt) and Egypt (4 k mt).
 

CFTC: funds and small specs increased their net short position in the NY raw sugar market from 57,529 lots on July 7th, to 68,296 lots on July 14th, after two consecutive weeks of reductions.
 

Brazil: in the week ending July 18, hydrous ethanol prices at the pump were more competitive than gasoline in Goiás (64.5%), Mato Grosso (55.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (60.8%), Minas Gerais (65.0%), Paraná (62.9%), Santa Catarina (69.3%), Bahia (69.8%) and the Federal District (63.9%).
 

Brazil: together, these states represent 66.2% of Otto-cycle fuel consumption, compared with 53.8% during the same period last year.
 

Philippines: SRA expects raw sugar production in the 2025/26 season to decline by up to 150 k mt due to red scale insect infestation on Negros Island.
 

Philippines: if confirmed, 2025/26 raw sugar production is projected to reach 1.70 mmt (-18.5% YoY).
 

Pakistan: government postponed its decision to authorize sugar exports in order to ensure domestic supply, and informed it will reassess the measure ahead of the next harvest.
 

Pakistan: producers estimate the country has an exportable sugar surplus of 1.3 mmt.