Analysis DATAGRO
NY #11: the raw sugar market remains sluggish — the October 2026 contract slipped 3 points to US$ 14.85 c/lb, struggling to reclaim the 15¢ level amid weak physical demand and a comfortable global trade flow surplus.
White sugar premium (Oct/Oct) surged 13.5% in one month to US$ 133.41/mt — yet support to NY remains limited, given scarce refining spare capacity in the Middle East and regional export restrictions.
Raw sugar prices are effectively range-bound between two key parities: China's import parity (~US$ 16.00 c/lb) capping the upside, and Brazil CS hydrous ethanol parity (US$ 13.60 c/lb) providing a floor — with current quotes near anhydrous ethanol parity.
Pakistan speculation: traders suggest the country could resume white sugar exports if London prices hold above US$ 460/mt, adding further bearish pressure to the market.
Brazil: sugar shipment nominations fell from 43 to 41 vessels carrying a combined 1.833 mmt — down 30.8% vs. a year ago. Top destinations: Nigeria (9.1%), Canada (8.4%), and Algeria (8.3%). Berthing wait time at Santos CLI berths 16/17 rose from 5 to 6 days, well below the 11 days seen a year ago.
USA: ethanol production fell 4.3% in the week ended July 10 to 1.040 mbpd amid tighter margins. Stocks rose 1.9% to 24.391 million barrels (+3.2% YoY), supported by slower exports. Gasoline consumption held steady at 8.844 mbpd (+4.2% YoY).
Ukraine: beet planted area in 2026 totaled 162k hectares, down 17.7% YoY — the lowest level ever recorded in the country, according to Ukrtsukor.
India: monsoon now covers the entire country, with good rains reported in early July across key cane-producing states Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh — after a June that ran 40–45% below average. However, a strengthening El Niño is expected to gradually reduce rainfall intensity over the medium-to-long term, raising crop development risks.
Agenda para hoje
● World Biodiesel Report.