Morning Call Jul 13th, 2026

NY #11: after incorporating a weather risk premium in the previous week, the raw sugar market saw limited activity and no significant changes in fundamentals, while October 2026 settled 24 points lower on Friday at US$ 14.88 c/lb.
 

U.S. dollar weakened against the Brazilian real, falling to R$ 5.1088/US$ Ptax on Friday, down 0.5% on the day and 1.2% over the week, amid the market reaction to domestic inflation data.
 

Oil: September 2026 Brent ended the week at US$ 76.01/bbl, nearly stable in the final session (-0.4%), but up 5.4% over the week.
 

Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, gasoline ended the week trading at 23.9% discount to import parity, while diesel showed a 32.7% discount.
 

India: the monsoon covered the entire country as of July 9th, while cumulative rainfall deficit narrowed from 42% at the end of June to 15% as of July 10th.
 

India: despite the recent improvement in rainfall, IMD forecasts a temporary monsoon pause between July 10th and 15th across northern, western, and central regions, maintaining concerns over the 26/27 crop.
 

CFTC: funds and small specs reduced their net short position in the NY raw sugar market from 92,490 lots on June 30th, to 57,529 lots on July 07th.
 

CS Brazil: with normalization of crushing operations following rain-induced stoppages, increased supply has once again put pressure on producer-level ethanol prices.
 

CS Brazil: the highest trading volume concentrated between Monday and Wednesday in São Paulo, while liquidity declined on Friday following the holiday.
 

CS Brazil: in São Paulo, producer hydrous ethanol traded at an average R$ 2.1805/liter on Friday, down 2.5% WoW, while anhydrous ethanol fell 2.9% WoW to R$ 2.5167/liter, both ex-mill net of taxes.
 

CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), CIF price of hydrous ethanol settled at R$ 2.2426/liter, net of taxes, down 5.3% WoW, according to DATAGRO Price Reporting Agency (PRA).
 

U.S.: USDA revised downward its estimate for sugar production in 26/27 to 8.168 mmt, raw value, below the 8.332 mmt recorded in 25/26.
 

U.S.: projection for imports was raised from 2.957 mmt to 3.247 mmt, driven by higher purchases of Mexican sugar.
 

U.S.: with demand stable at 11.353 mmt, stocks-to-use ratio increased from 13.3% to 13.6% in 26/27.
 

Mexico: USDA revised upward its estimate for sugar production in 26/27 from 5.283 mmt to 5.377 mmt, raw value, while projection for exports was raised from 1.063 mmt to 1.292 mmt.