Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market remained virtually unchanged for the third consecutive session on Thursday, with October 2026 edging up 1 point to US$ 15.12 c/lb, as the market continues to monitor climate risks.
El Niño conditions continue to strengthen across the Pacific, with sea surface temperature anomalies ranging between +1.1°C and +1.2°C since the second week of June, characterizing a moderate event.
El Niño: The NOAA projects further strengthening during 2H 2026, with an 81% probability of a Super El Niño between October and December 2026 and temperature anomalies ranging from +1.9°C to +2.4°C.
Brazil’s govt postponed decision to end the gasoline subsidy of R$ 0.44/liter, due to the resumption of military conflicts between the US and Iran.
Brazil: CNPE meeting, to discuss the increase in the ethanol blending mandate in gasoline, from 30% to 32%. was rescheduled for July 14th.
U.S. ethanol production declined 2.1% last week to 1.093 mbpd (+0.7% YoY), while inventories fell 3.1% on the week to 23.928 million barrels (-0.1% YoY).
U.S. gasoline demand decreased 3.1% last week to 8.845 mbpd (-3.4% YoY).
U.S. agricultural sector renewed its push for year-round E15 gasoline sales, while the Trump administration reinforced its support by including the measure in a supplemental funding package.
NNE Brazil: Cane crushing reached 633 k mt in 1H June (+10.6% YoY), totaling 49.96 mmt on a cumulative basis since September 1st 2025, virtually unchanged from a year earlier (-0.6% YoY).
NNE Brazil: rainfall remained frequent throughout June, keeping soil moisture elevated. For July, rainfall is expected to be below average, favoring harvest progress.
NNE Brazil: cumulative industrial yield declined 7.7% to 125.27 kg TRS/tc, while the sugar production mix fell 4.0 percentage points to 49.52%, reflecting the impact of persistent rainfall on cane fields.
NNE Brazil: cumulative sugar production reached 2.95 mmt through June 16th (-14.8% YoY).
NNE Brazil: cumulative ethanol production reached 2.71 billion liters (+36.0% YoY), including 1.853 billion liters of cane ethanol (-0.7% YoY) and 861 million liters of corn ethanol (+570.4% YoY).
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.