Morning Call Jul 07th, 2026

NY raw sugar market resumed its upward trend on Monday, with October 2026 gaining 37 points to US$ 15.22 c/lb, still supported by the weather risk premium.
 

CFTC: funds and small specs reduced their net short position in the NY raw sugar market from 148,583 lots on June 23rd to 92,490 lots on June 30th.
 

India: monsoon rainfall reduced the cumulative deficit to 20% below the historical average as of July 6th, following precipitation 41% above average between July 1st and 6th. However, the monsoon advance remains six days behind schedule.
 

Brazil: two cold air masses are expected to affect CS Brazil over the coming days. The first, between July 6th and 8th, could bring light frost to cane-growing areas of Paraná and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.
 

Brazil: a new cold front forecast from July 11th onward is expected to bring rainfall back to CS Brazil, initially affecting Paraná and later on Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and southern Minas Gerais.
 

Brazil: although below the volumes recorded in late June, the rainfall forecast for 2H July could cause new localized disruptions to crushing operations in CS Brazil.
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol remained competitive against gasoline in nine states last week, which together account for 66.2% of Brazil's Otto-cycle fuel consumption.
 

CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills reached 4.028 billion liters as of June 16th (+54.6% YoY), including 2.691 billion liters of hydrous ethanol (+68.4% YoY) and 1.337 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (+32.7% YoY), according to MAPA.
 

CS Brazil: according to DATAGRO, until June 16th, ethanol stocks were sufficient to supply the domestic market for 45 days of hydrous ethanol (+16 days YoY) and 35 days of anhydrous ethanol (+5 days YoY).
 

CS Brazil: ethanol production is expected to reach a record 38.7 billion liters in the 26/27 crop, according to DATAGRO estimates, reinforcing the outlook for abundant supply throughout the season.
 

CS Brazil: despite ethanol's improved competitiveness relative to gasoline across several states, domestic consumption remained virtually stable between March and May, while exports continue to be constrained by the greater competitiveness of U.S. ethanol.
 

CS Brazil: given the combination of record production, weak exports, and domestic demand showing no meaningful recovery, inventories are expected to remain at elevated levels throughout the 26/27 crop.