Morning Call Jul 02nd, 2026

NY raw sugar market extended its rally, with October 2026 rising 17 points to US$ 14.99 c/lb, accumulating gains of 97 points WoW. The move continues to reflect the incorporation of a weather risk premium.
 

India: the monsoon remains delayed by five to six days and has yet to fully reach key regions such as Uttar Pradesh, where rainfall should already be well established at this time of the year.
 

India: in regions already affected by the monsoon, rainfall has been occurring but at levels below the historical average, increasing concerns over reservoir water levels.
 

India’s 166 major reservoirs held 48.405 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water as of June 25th, equivalent to 26.4% of total live storage capacity, compared to 66.114 BCM a year earlier.
 

India: accumulated rains exceeding 100 mm are expected across the central region and west coast over the next 10 days, while northern and northeastern regions are also forecast to receive significant precipitation.
 

Southeast Asia: forecasts indicate an intensification of rainfall over the next 10 days across much of the region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm in producing areas of India, Thailand, and Indonesia.
 

Brazil: sugar shipment nominations declined from 43 to 42 vessels this week, with a combined cargo of 1.851 mmt (-30.9% YoY). China remained the main destination (23.9%), followed by Bangladesh (9.1%) and Algeria (8.5%), according to DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil: waiting times for berthing at CLI 16/17 terminals, Santos port, remained at 9 days, below the 14 days recorded a year earlier.
 

Brazil: according to DATAGRO Line-up, ethanol exports totaled 179 million liters in June (+33.4% YoY), bringing first-half 2026 exports to 460 million liters (-38.6% YoY).
 

Brazil: President Lula signed a provisional measure allocating approximately R$ 270 million in subsidies to cane producers in Northeast Brazil, with payments of R$ 12/ton marketed to compensate for income losses.
 

U.S. ethanol production increased by 2.5% in the week ending June 26th, reaching 1.196 mbpd (+3.8% YoY), while inventories also rose by 0.4% during the week to 24.690 million barrels (+2.4% YoY).
 

U.S. gasoline demand increased by 4.1% last week to 9.131 mbpd (+5.7% YoY).