Morning Call Dec 03rd, 2025

NY raw sugar market recovered on Tuesday, correcting part of the previous session’s losses, with March 2026 advancing 22 points to US$ 14.98 c/lb.
 

CFTC: funds and small specs increased their net short position in NY raw sugar market from 174,466 lots on Oct 14th to 180,820 lots on Oct 21st.
 

CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills reached 8.417 billion liters on Nov 15th (-18.2% YoY), including 4.910 billion liters of hydrous ethanol (-21.0% YoY) and 3.507 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (-13.9% YoY).
 

CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol stocks are sufficient to meet domestic demand for 81 days, while anhydrous stocks cover 87 days of consumption, according to DATAGRO estimates.
 

CS Brazil: low stocks, combined with the early end of crushing and firm demand at the pump, continue to support ethanol prices for producers.
 

CS Brazil: with the better relative profitability, mills are shifting the production mix toward ethanol, mainly anhydrous, to ensure adequate supply for blending in the final third of the 25/26 crop.
 

CS Brazil: some mills have already run out of ethanol, while others remain out of the spot market waiting for more attractive off-season prices, keeping short-term price pressure to the upside.
 

CS Brazil: the first SACZ is expected to form by Dec 10th, bringing between 50 mm and 100 mm of rainfall to São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, with totals above 100 mm in parts of GO, MT and TO.
 

CS Brazil: a new SACZ is forecast to establish between São Paulo and the southern portion of the North region from Dec 15th to 22nd, easing temperatures and reducing heat stress on cane fields.
 

Brazil: the vessel Bow Prosper, arriving from Argentina, has been nominated to discharge 10 million liters of ethanol at the port of Suape (PE), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil imported 49 million liters of ethanol in Nov 2025 (+273.4% YoY), totaling 414 million liters year-to-date (+155.7% YoY), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Mexico: only five mills were operating in the week ended Nov 22nd, half of the initial forecast, due to heavy rains delaying the start of the season.
 

Mexico: cane crushing reached 257 k mt in the first two weeks of the 25/26 season (+5.6%), with sugar production at 25 k mt, tel quel (+6.9% YoY), and ethanol output at 321 million liters (+109.6% YoY).