Morning Call Aug 05th, 2026

NY #11: raw sugar started August on a more constructive note — October 2026 closed at US$ 15.04 c/lb on Tuesday (Aug 4), up 49 points in a week, reclaiming the 15¢ threshold despite the strong crushing pace in CS Brazil.
 

Two key drivers behind the more positive tone: growing El Niño risks for 2026 and increasingly frequent rumors that India may resort to sugar imports to curb surging domestic prices — Indian sugar prices have already risen 14.8% in one month.
 

Short-term caution remains warranted: above-expected crops in the EU, Mexico, Thailand, Pakistan, and China, combined with softer demand, point to a global sugar surplus of 1.91 mmt (raw value) in 25/26 (Oct/Sep), per DATAGRO.
 

Sugar market may be approaching a correction cycle, as El Niño shapes the 26/27 Asian crop — particularly in India. Rumors suggest India could release an import quota before the start of the 26/27 (Oct/Sep) crushing season, which is only expected to begin after Diwali (Nov 6–10).
 

DATAGRO's preliminary estimate points to a global sugar deficit of 1.62 mmt (raw value) in the 26/27 marketing year (Oct/Sep), also factoring in reduced planting in Europe and Thailand.
 

USA: RIN prices started August lower — the 2026 D4 RIN contract traded at US$ 2.17/RIN on Aug 3, down 13.8% in one month, though still 101.4% above early-2026 levels, on rumors about a possible extension of the compliance deadline for refineries, combined with soybean oil price corrections on the CBOT.
 

Brazil: VHP sugar shipments out of Santos are now trading at a discount of 50–55 points for August deliveries, narrowing to 45–50 points of discount for September shipments.
 

Brazil: following the increase in anhydrous ethanol blending in gasoline as of August 1, alongside adjustments to corn ethanol production estimates and the production mix, DATAGRO revised its forecast for CS Brazil ethanol ending stocks as of March 31, 2027 — full details available on the portal.
 

EU: sugar exports reached 95 k mt in June, down just 2.3% YoY, bringing cumulative exports since October 2025 to 1.339 mmt, 1.5% below the same period of 24/25.
 

EU: sugar imports totaled 58 k mt in June, up 13.8% YoY, bringing cumulative imports since October 2025 to 706 k mt — a sharp increase of 61.2% vs. the same period of 24/25.