Morning Call Aug 04th, 2026

NY #11: October 2026 gained 35 points to US$ 15.01 c/lb yesterday, reaching the highest level in three weeks and extending the technical rebound that began last Friday in an oversold market.
 

El Niño: the anomaly has now a 81% probability of strengthening into a Super El Niño during 4Q26, development that has historically been detrimental to Asian monsoons and sugarcane yields.
 

India: the Western region recorded rainfall 14.6% above average in July, while the Northern and Eastern regions posted significant deficits, with precipitation 23.0% and 45.0% below normal, respectively.
 

India: despite above-average rainfall in the West during July, cumulative precipitation since the onset of the Asian Monsoon in June remains below the historical average, totaling 593.1 mm (-10.8%).
 

India: during August, rainfall is expected to persist across Northern India and may also extend into the Eastern region, while Central and Western areas are forecast to receive below-average precipitation.
 

India: according to India Meteorological Department (IMD), cumulative monsoon rainfall during August and September is expected to remain 94% below the long-term average.
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol at the pump remained competitive with gasoline in Acre (69.8%), Amazonas (68.7%), Santa Catarina (68.9%), Bahia (67.5%), Federal District (63.7%), Goiás (63.2%), Mato Grosso (55.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (60.5%), Minas Gerais (64.5%), Paraná (62.9%), and São Paulo (57.9%).
 

Brazil: together, these 11 states account for approximately 67.8% of Brazil's Otto-cycle fuel consumption, compared to 53.8% in the same period last year, when ethanol was competitive in only six states.
 

Brazil: ethanol exports totaled 87 million liters in July (-42.7% YoY), bringing cumulative shipments since January to 431 million liters (-52.1% YoY), according to DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil: export nominations for August already indicate 7 vessels scheduled to load 216 million liters of ethanol (+38.9% YoY), according to DATAGRO Line-up.
 

CS Brazil: the slow pace of sugar export nominations may impact receiving capacity at interior terminals in the coming weeks, as mills across the Center-South continue to shift production mix towards sugar.
 

Philippines: the 25/26 season ended on July 6th, with cane crushing totaling 23.111 mmt (-11.0% YoY), while sugar production reached 1.851 mmt (-11.3% YoY).