Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market turned down again after a volatile session, with May 2026 down 10 points to US$ 13.83 c/lb, while July 2026 fell 14 points to US$ 13.97 c/lb. Bearish fundamentals prevailed following an early-session rebound attempt, in line with the energy market.
Energy prices moved higher again, reflecting stalled negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, pointing to a more prolonged crisis in the Middle East amid the approach of the seasonal peak in oil and refined products demand.
El Niño: after a prolonged period of negative anomalies, recent weeks have seen warming in Sea Surface Temperatures in the monitored region, although conditions remain neutral.
El Niño: models indicate a 61% probability of El Niño formation between May and July, with persistence throughout 2026.
El Niño: since March, DATAGRO has warned of the possibility of stronger intensity than initially expected. According to NOAA, there is currently around 25% probability that the phenomenon could reach a very strong intensity by year-end.
Argentina: ethanol production reached 101 million liters in March (+6.4% YoY), a new record for the month, totaling 296 million liters in 1Q 2026 (+4.3% YoY), also a record for the period.
Brazil: cane crushing in Alagoas reached 17.7 mmt in the 25/26 crop through April 15th (+1.6% YoY), while sugar production totaled 1.42 mmt (-12.1% YoY).
Brazil: industrial yield in Alagoas reached 128.36 kg TRS/mt in the 25/26 crop through April 15th, below 136.05 kg TRS/mt in the previous season.
Brazil sugar exports reached 921 k mt through the fourth week of April, with a daily average of 58 k mt, down 25.7% compared to the daily average of April 2025.
Guatemala: cane crushing in the 25/26 crop reached 21.06 mmt through April 5th (+3.4% YoY), while sugar production totaled 2.23 mmt (+7.1% YoY).
Guatemala: DATAGRO estimates sugar production in the 25/26 crop at 2.79 mmt, up from 2.54 mmt in 24/25 (+10.0% YoY).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO CBios Market Report.