Morning Call Apr 27th, 2026

NY raw sugar market ended the week on a more constructive tone, with partial recovery of recent losses driven by opportunistic buying. May 2026 rose 33 points on Friday to US$ 13.93 c/lb, accumulating gains of 62 points over the week.
 

NY #11: fundamentals still point to a bearish bias in the short term, with expectations of a larger cane crop in CS Brazil, alongside higher-than-expected production in China, Thailand, Pakistan, Central America, and excess stocks in the European Union.
 

CS Brazil: sugar exports continue at a slow pace, managing lower inventories; the advance of crushing will be key to define VHP availability and limit further downside.
 

El Niño: it remains unclear when the market will start reacting to the potential impacts of El Niño and revert the current bearish cycle, specially as prices remain below production costs across major producing regions.
 

CFTC: funds and small specs increased their net short position in the NY raw sugar market for the third consecutive week, from 147,214 lots to 156,138 lots on April 21st.
 

Brazil: last Friday, the government formally announced the intention to increase the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline from 30% to 32% (for an initial 180-day period) starting June, with formal approval expected at CNPE meeting on May 7th.
 

Brazil: higher blend could boost anhydrous ethanol demand by 460 million liters during the initial period, providing price support amid rising supply.
 

Mexico: cane crushing totaled 38.94 mmt in the 25/26 crop on April 18th, flat YoY, while sugar production reached 4.21 mmt (+3.8% YoY).
 

Russia: sugar production reached 93 k mt in March (+1.6% YoY), bringing cumulative output in the 25/26 crop to 6.245 mmt (+0.3% YoY), according to Rosstat.
 

Thailand sugar exports reached 697 k mt in March (+63.1% YoY), totaling 1.909 mmt in the 25/26 crop (-3.3% YoY).
 

 Indonesia remains the main destination of Thai sugar in 25/26, with 505 k mt (26.5% of total), followed by Cambodia (11.1%) and Malaysia (10.2%).