Morning Call Apr 22nd, 2026

NY #11: amid a national holiday in Brazil, the raw sugar market closed another session without a clear direction this Tuesday – the May 2026 contract slipped 4 points to US$ 13.43 c/lb, while the rest of the forward curve registered mild gains.
 

Sugar market remains under pressure, metaphorically “in the corner,” struggling to recover amid a lack of short-term bullish fundamental news to offset the perception of comfortable supply in the trade flows.
 

Key bearish drivers include: large CS Brazil 26/27 cane crop, higher-than-expected sugar production in China, Thailand, Pakistan, & Central America, and higher stocks in the European Union.
 

What remains to be seen is how long the sugar market will take to start reacting to the coming El Niño — and when the world market will turn this downward cycle, as prices remain below cost of production across every major sugar-producing region.
 

Oil: Brent crude moved back above US$ 100/bbl in the mid of yesterday’s session after President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire pending an Iranian proposal – Brent closed up 3.14% at US$ 98.48/bbl.
 

Australia 25/26: cane crushing totaled 28.4 mmt, down 1.5% YoY — the lowest level in 14 years. Sugar production fell 2.3% YoY to 3.9 mmt, the lowest since the 11/12 crop.
 

Australia 26/27: USDA projects a modest recovery, with cane crushing rising 8.2% YoY to 30.7 mmt, supported by better weather conditions and a longer cane development cycle.
 

Australia 26/27: sugar production is forecast up 7.2% YoY to 4.18 mmt — the highest since 22/23 — though still 1.9% below the 10-year average.
 

China: sugar imports reached 100 k mt in March vs. 69 k mt a year ago, bringing the cumulative total since October 2025 to 2.39 mmt, 48.6% above the same period of 24/25.