Morning Call Apr 15th, 2026

NY raw sugar market halted its losing streak in a predominantly technical move, with May 2026 advancing 20 points to US$ 13.88 c/lb. More moderate gains along the forward curve reinforce the interpretation of a short-term technical adjustment and a possible exhaustion of selling pressure.
 

U.S. dollar depreciation against the Brazilian Real provided temporary support to prices, with the Ptax settled at R$ 4.9806/US$ (down 0.87% on the day), reflecting stronger capital inflows into emerging markets.
 

CS Brazil: the combination of lower sugar prices and the appreciation of the Brazilian Real pressured mill remuneration, with the equivalent price in local currency declining to R$ 1,588/mt, including Pol premium (down 8.4% MoM).
 

CS Brazil: sugar price in Brazilian Reais stands 33.6% below the five-year average and below both the total average production cost (R$ 2,022/mt) and the cash cost (R$ 1,778/mt), according to DATAGRO.
 

CS Brazil: this scenario reduces the attractiveness of sugar and reinforces the potential for adjustments in the production mix throughout the season, with a greater allocation of cane toward ethanol production.
 

Brazil: sugar exports via containers reached 114.5 k mt in February (down 17.5% YoY), totaling 215.2 k mt year-to-date (down 37.0% YoY), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil: as of February, containerized volumes accounted for 38.5% of bagged sugar shipments, below the 49.1% recorded in the first two months of 2025.
 

India: according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon rainfall is expected to reach 92% of the Long-Period Average (LPA), the lowest forecast in nearly three decades.
 

India: the IMD forecast indicates that a large portion of the country is likely to experience below-normal rainfall, with probabilities ranging between 34% and 45%.
 

India: the government has signaled the possibility of increasing the mandatory ethanol blending rate in gasoline from 20% to 21%, utilizing the 1 p.p. tolerance margin permitted under BIS regulations.
 

Nigeria: the government approved a reduction in sugar import tariffs, lowering the duty on raw sugar from 70% to 55%, while the tax applied to refined sugar in powdered or granulated form was reduced from 70% to 57.5%.
 

Nigeria imported 1.626 mmt of sugar from Brazil in 2025 (up 6.3% YoY). In the first quarter of 2026, purchases have already reached 491 k mt (up 31.9% YoY), marking a record for the period.