Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market extended its downward trend, with May 2026 dropping 31 points to US$ 13.92 c/lb, accumulating a 108-point loss on the week, reflecting the market’s assimilation of greater exportable surpluses from Thailand and Pakistan, in addition to the easing of tensions in the Middle East.
India: the 25/26 crop (Oct/Sep) is approaching its end with performance below initial expectations, reflecting the early shutdown of operations at several mills.
India: higher crushing capacity led to the processing of younger cane, while low solar radiation during the 2025 monsoon season and increased flowering in Maharashtra and Karnataka reduced both agricultural yields and industrial recovery.
India: DATAGRO revised down its 25/26 sugar production estimate to 28.3 mmt (white value), pointing to a tighter domestic balance.
India: with domestic consumption near 29 mmt, the stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 11.5%, equivalent to roughly 1.4 months of consumption, reinforcing constraints on domestic availability.
India: export capacity remains limited, with only 600 k mt contracted within the official 2.0 mmt quota, of which around 400 k mt have already been shipped.
India: for 26/27, expectations of El Niño and below-average monsoons support projections of another production decline, a scenario that could eliminate any export window.
El Niño: the NOAA raised the probability of the phenomenon to 61% for May–July, anticipating an earlier onset and indicating persistence through at least Nov–Jan.
El Niño: there is also a 25% probability of a very strong event (SEA anomaly > 2.0°C) by year-end, although this scenario depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies.
U.S.: the USDA revised down its 25/26 sugar production estimate to 8.408 mmt (-1.4% YoY), reflecting lower sucrose recovery and reduced beet weights.
U.S. imports were increased to 2.279 mmt and total demand adjusted to 11.239 mmt, resulting in virtually stable ending stocks and a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.2%.
Mexico: the USDA raised its 25/26 sugar production estimate to 5.125 mmt and revised exports to 935 k mt, still below the previous season’s level.
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.