Producers in Mato Grosso have already negotiated 47.32% of the estimated corn production for the 2025/26 harvest by the end of May. This figure represents an increase of 1.02 percentage points (pp) compared to the same period of the previous harvest. The data was released this week by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). According to the institute, the performance reflects the progress of the harvest and the greater availability of the cereal in the market. These two factors have led producers to intensify sales, and at the same time, the increase in supply has put pressure on corn prices in the state. In May, the average price of the grain was R$ 42.73 per sack in Mato Grosso. According to Milena Bezerra, market analyst at Imea, the pace of commercialization demonstrates that producers are adjusting their strategies in the face of the need and scenario of high supply. "Mato Grosso is heading towards another large corn harvest, which increases the availability of the product for both the domestic market and exports," she emphasizes. Despite progress in negotiations for the current corn crop, the outlook for the coming months remains uncertain. Advance sales of the 2026/27 crop reached 4.77% of estimated production by May, a 2.08 percentage point increase compared to the previous month. Even so, this percentage remains 0.82 percentage points below that recorded in the same period last year. Producers' caution is mainly related to doubts surrounding weather patterns in the second half of this year. The possibility of a "super" El Niño has generated concern in the sector, as the phenomenon could alter rainfall patterns in important producing regions and impact the development of the following crop, both soybeans and corn. “The forecast of a more intense El Niño this year could impact soybeans and, consequently, affect the corn window in the next harvest. This scenario is already reflected in negotiations for the 2026/27 harvest, which has about 5% of production sold so far. This percentage is slightly lower than that recorded in the same period of the current harvest, as are prices, which remain under more pressure,” says Milena. According to Imea, this set of factors has limited a more accelerated advance in forward sales, even with prices showing relative stability. In May, the price of a sack of corn for the future harvest was negotiated, on average, at R$ 45.39, practically stable compared to April. Record exports in May. Mato Grosso was the main driver of the increase in Brazilian corn exports in May. The state shipped 121,030 tons of the grain, equivalent to 48.55% of the total volume exported by Brazil during the month. According to data released by Imea, the result represents the 5th highest ever recorded for May and an increase of 207.36% compared to the previous period. The state has already exported 24.03 million tons in the 2024/25 harvest, a volume that exceeds by 1.68% the total recorded in the entire previous harvest. Even with the month of June still underway, the current cycle already ranks as the third largest in the historical series of corn exports from the state.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.