The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) estimates that the GDP of Agriculture should register a 2.5% increase in 2026 and 2027. In the overall calculation, the institute revised upwards its projection for the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2026, which went from 1.6% to 1.8%. The estimate for 2027 was maintained at 2.0%, indicating a moderate acceleration of activity in the coming years. The data are included in the new edition of the Overview of the Economic Situation, released this Thursday (9). The revision reflects, above all, a more favorable start to the year than expected. After an end to 2025 marked by a loss of dynamism, the indicators for January point to widespread growth among sectors, including those most sensitive to credit. “The scenario continues to evolve, and the most recent data indicate an improvement at the beginning of 2026. Our job is precisely to monitor these changes continuously, based on evidence, adjusting projections whenever the fundamentals of the economy indicate it,” explains the coordinator of Economic Monitoring and Studies, Claudio Hamilton dos Santos. The scenario continues to be supported mainly by household consumption, favored by income growth, a still-heated labor market, and public policies that maintain access to credit. At the same time, the advancement of activity remains limited by the effects of the recent monetary tightening. The Brazilian economy maintains a pattern already observed in recent years: sectors more influenced by income and/or external demand, such as agriculture, extractive industry, and services, continue to perform more robustly, while segments more sensitive to interest rates show greater deceleration. For the first quarter of 2026, the expectation is for growth of 0.8% compared to the previous quarter and 1.4% year-on-year, with emphasis on services and household consumption. Interest rates, war, and external uncertainties – Despite short-term improvements, the scenario remains conditioned by external factors and the trajectory of interest rates. The beginning of the Selic rate reduction cycle tends to favor activity throughout the year, but its speed is still uncertain. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has increased international volatility and may impact commodity prices, especially oil, which brings mixed effects for Brazil: while it puts pressure on inflation, it may favor exports and revenues. Stable inflation, but with a change in composition – The projection for inflation in 2026, measured by the IPCA, was maintained at 4.2%, but there were relevant changes in its composition. Prices for food and free services were revised downwards, reflecting a recent improvement in these components. On the other hand, the expected increase in fuel prices led to an upward revision of administered prices, pressured by the increase in oil prices in the international market. Investments still weak, but with prospects for recovery – Investments remain the main point of attention. Despite signs of improvement at the margin, they are still accumulating contraction and are expected to decline by 1.1% in 2026, with recovery projected only in 2027. Household consumption, however, is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026, supported by income and measures such as minimum wage adjustments and changes to income tax, although pressured by high interest rates and indebtedness. Other sectors: services lead, industry still under pressure – On the supply side, the services sector should continue to be the main driver of the economy. Industry tends to advance moderately, still limited by the cost of credit.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.