Indonesia is expected to reduce coffee production and exports in the 2026/27 season.

Indonesia's green coffee production is projected to total 11.38 million 60kg bags in the 2026/27 crop year, a drop of about 8% compared to the 12.37 million bags harvested in the previous season. This projection comes from the attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Jakarta and is included in his new annual report, published last Friday (15). The decline will be driven mainly by lower robusta productivity in the mountainous regions of southern Sumatra and in producing areas of the island of Java. The USDA attaché projects robusta production at 10 million bags in the next season, a 9.1% decrease compared to the 2025/26 crop year. Excessive rainfall in mid-2025 compromised the flowering of the crops, causing flower drop and pollen loss, which affected fruit development. Furthermore, the Indonesian meteorological agency predicts a longer and more intense dry season in 2026, influenced by a moderate El Niño, increasing the risk of droughts and further production losses. For Arabica coffee, the USDA attaché projects Indonesian production at 1.38 million bags in the 2026/27 crop year, a slight increase compared to the 1.37 million bags harvested in 2025/26. According to the department, growth in Arabica coffee production could be even greater, but the producing regions of Aceh and North Sumatra are still facing the effects of floods and landslides associated with Typhoon Sinyar, which occurred at the end of 2025. According to the attaché, some crops could take up to three years to recover. Adding both varieties together, the area cultivated with coffee is expected to remain stable at 1.2 million hectares in the 2026/27 crop year, as the local government has not structured or promoted relevant expansion and replanting programs in recent years. Small expansions were recorded in West Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi, encouraged by higher green coffee prices. Small producers continue to dominate the sector, accounting for approximately 98% of the planted area. With lower supply and strong domestic demand, Indonesia's green coffee exports are projected at 7 million bags in 2026/27, an 11% decrease compared to the previous cycle. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 4.83 million bags in 2026/27, an increase of 20,000 bags.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.