In its first field survey, the USDA raises its estimate for the 2026/27 US soybean and corn crop.

THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) On Wednesday (12), the World Supply and Demand Survey (WASDE) released its August report, the first of the season to incorporate projections for the 2026/27 US crop based on field surveys. The last three reports had already provided initial estimates for the new crop, but were based solely on calculations that used the planted area report – released on June 30 – and an average of productivity over the last few years.

Soy

The USDA projects that U.S. producers will harvest 122.99 million tons of soybeans in the 2026/27 crop year, a 6% annual increase compared to the 115.99 million tons produced in 2025/26 and the highest volume in the historical series. The previous projection was 121.79 million tons, which already surpassed the 2021/22 crop year (121.50 million tons), which was a record at the time. U.S. stocks, on the other hand, are expected to fall from 8.85 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 crop year (revised from 8.98 million tons) to 8.71 million tons at the end of 2026/27, a figure revised from 8.44 million tons in the July report. Globally, soybean production is expected to rise from 429.46 million tons in the old crop year to 442.25 million tons in the new crop year. The previous report projected 441.70 million tons for the 2026/27 cycle. Global soybean stocks are projected at 124.21 million tons at the end of the 2026/27 season (an increase of 400,000 tons), compared to 125.12 million tons at the end of 2025/26 (a revised figure from 125.33 million tons in the previous report).

Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina

Regarding the 2025/26 soybean crop, the USDA raised its projection for Brazilian production by 500,000 tons, to 180.5 million tons, but reduced Argentina's by 500,000 tons, to 49.5 million tons. For 2026/27, the agency continues to estimate production for the two countries at 186 and 50 million tons, respectively.

Corn

The USDA marginally raised its estimate for the 2026/27 US corn crop from 406.42 to 406.75 million tons, representing a 6% decrease from the record 432.34 million tons harvested in the 2025/26 cycle and the second-highest volume in the historical series. US corn stocks are expected to fall from 49.40 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 crop year to 41.98 million tons at the end of 2026/27 (revised figures from 51.31 and 45.46 million tons, respectively). Globally, the USDA expects corn production to decline from 1.330 billion tons in the old crop year to 1.299 billion tons in the new crop year. These figures were revised from 1.327 and 1.297 billion tons, respectively. Global corn stocks are projected at 274.66 million tons at the end of the 2026/27 season (revised from 275.26 million tons), compared to 298.83 million tons at the end of 2025/26 (revised from 298.67 million tons in the previous report).

Corn production in Brazil and Argentina

The USDA raised its estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop by 2 million tons, to 140 million tons, and maintained its estimate for Argentina at 63 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, the department continues to project Brazilian corn production at 139 million tons, and Argentine production at 55 million tons.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.