The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth projections for the Brazilian economy for 2026 and 2027, but assesses that the pace of expansion will lose momentum next year. The update is contained in the Global Economic Outlook report, released this Wednesday (8), says a note from "Agência Brasil"The estimate for Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2026. For 2027, the forecast rose from 2% to 2.2%. Despite the higher projection for 2027, growth remains below expectations for this year, indicating a slowdown in activity. With the new projections, the IMF's forecasts become more optimistic than those of the financial market, the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Bank.
Key figures
– Brazil's GDP growth in 2026: 2.4% (compared to 1.9% in April); – Brazil's GDP growth in 2027: 2.2% (compared to 2% in April); – Treasury's projection for GDP in 2026: 2.3%; – Central Bank's projection: 2%; – Market projection (Focus bulletin): 1.99% in 2026 and 1.69% in 2027.
Global economy
For the global economy, the IMF reduced its 2026 growth forecast from 3.1% to 3%. For 2027, the expectation rose to 3.4%, still below the average recorded in 2024 and 2025. The Fund assesses that the global economy has shown resilience in the face of the war in the Middle East, but warns of risks linked to the continuation of the conflict, the fragmentation of international trade, and uncertainties about the advancement of artificial intelligence. Despite the resilience of the global economy, the report highlights that the conflict between Iran and the United States will impact global inflation, whose projections for 2026 were raised by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7%. In 2027, global inflation is expected to fall to 3.9%. According to the IMF, energy prices remain about 25% above pre-war levels, while world trade is expected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, before resuming growth of 4.3% the following year.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.