IMF lowers forecast for global economy, but raises estimate for Brazil’s GDP.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its projection for global economic growth in 2026 and warned of the risk of recession if the war in the Middle East continues. At the same time, the institution raised its estimate for Brazil, driven by the rise in energy commodities, according to a note from "Agência Brasil". According to the World Economic Outlook report, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised from 3.3% to 3.1% in 2026. The change reflects the impacts of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran on energy prices, production chains, and market confidence. For Brazil, the projection was raised from 1.6% to 1.9% in the same period. According to the IMF, the country tends to be less affected than economies in Asia, Europe, and Africa and may even benefit in the short term due to being a net exporter of energy. :: War puts pressure on inflation. The IMF assesses that the current scenario represents a greater risk to the global economy than recent shocks, such as the wave of trade tariffs from the United States. According to the institution's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the escalation in the Persian Gulf could have significantly more severe effects than predicted. In the baseline scenario, the conflict would have a limited duration, with an average oil price of around US$ 82 per barrel in 2026. Even so, there would be a global slowdown. In a more adverse scenario, with oil above US$ 100 per barrel until 2027, the world could approach a recession. In a more severe hypothesis, with prices reaching US$ 110 in 2026 and US$ 125 in 2027, global inflation would exceed 6%, requiring further monetary tightening by central banks. :: Brazil benefits. Despite the more challenging external environment, Brazil appears among the few countries with a positive revision in projections. The IMF attributes this movement to increased revenues from exports of oil and other commodities (primary goods with international pricing). Even so, Brazilian growth remains moderate compared to other emerging economies. For 2027, the forecast is for 2% expansion, below the previous estimate, reflecting the global slowdown, higher input costs, and more restrictive financial conditions. The fund highlights that factors such as high international reserves, less dependence on foreign currency debt, and a floating exchange rate should help the country face external shocks. :: Impacts on major economies Among the major economies, the United States is expected to grow 2.3% in 2026, with a slight slowdown in 2027. The Eurozone faces a more challenging scenario, with projected growth of around 1.1%, pressured by energy costs. China is expected to expand by 4.4% in 2026, while Japan maintains more modest growth, close to 0.7%. :: More Vulnerable Global Economy The IMF emphasizes that the projections consider a relatively controlled scenario for the conflict. Should there be a more intense escalation or prolonged disruptions in energy supply, the effects on growth, inflation, and financial markets could be significantly more severe. The report indicates that the global economy is entering a period of greater fragility, with increased sensitivity to geopolitical shocks. According to the fund, Brazil's improved performance appears as a temporary relief, dependent on external factors.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.