THE International Energy Agency (IEA) published, this Wednesday (17), its monthly report on the oil market, projecting an oversupply of the fuel next year as a result of the resumption of flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the organization, the agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict in the Persian Gulf "opens the door for a resumption of exports from the Middle East." The recovery could also be seen in demand, although the increase is estimated to be only "modest."
Supply and demand in 2026
Despite optimism for next year, the IEA projects that the energy market will not be able to recover from the impact caused by the tension in the Strait of Hormuz this year.
The organization lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, estimating a drop of 1.1 million barrels per day (mbd) this year – a decline about three times greater than the previous expectation.
Regarding supply, the IEA reported that global oil production fell to 94.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), a 12.5% drop compared to the start of the conflict. As a result, the agency states that global energy reserves decreased by almost 220 million barrels between April and May.
"Further declines in the coming months could push global oil reserves back to historically low levels, before the market equilibrium tilts toward a surplus by the end of the year," the agency says.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.