As the world moves towards clean energy, electrification and digital technologies, trade in critical minerals is taking on a central role in industrial policies as well as geopolitical competition. The UN Trade and Development agency, UNCTAD, released an analysis on Friday (12) on how governments are responding to the increased demand for minerals that are essential for electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, semiconductors and artificial intelligence data centers.
Supply concentrated in a few countries
According to "UN News," these minerals include copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. Demand for lithium is expected to grow by more than 350% by 2040, while demand for graphite could rise by more than 130%. According to UNCTAD, the problem is not only the increase in demand, but also where the supply is located, who controls the processing, and where the economic value is captured. The agency states that the supply chains of critical minerals remain highly concentrated. By 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo held 74% of global cobalt mine production, while China produced 78% of the world's natural graphite. Australia, Chile, and China together produced more than 70% of lithium. The concentration is even greater in refining and processing, where much of the value is created. China plays a dominant role in refining several critical minerals, while Indonesia accounts for 43% of global nickel refining capacity.
Taxes, prohibitions and agreements
The challenge for many mineral-rich developing countries is that they continue to export raw materials while higher-value processing and manufacturing occur elsewhere. In this context, governments are increasingly using trade policy to secure the entry of critical minerals, build domestic extraction and processing capacity, and strengthen their position in global value chains. Since 2020, nearly 100 export-related measures have been introduced concerning critical minerals. These include licensing requirements, taxes, and export bans. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Indonesia have been among the most active users of these measures. The report also points to a rapid increase in collaborations between countries to explore critical minerals since 2022. UNCTAD identified 73 international agreements and partnership instruments, 58 of which were signed in the last 4 years. These agreements increasingly cover the entire value chain, from exploration and extraction to processing, refining, manufacturing, and recycling.
Fragmentation or cooperation?
UNCTAD warns of the risk of a fragmented system of overlapping agreements, rules, and standards. This could increase costs, complicate investment decisions, and pressure developing countries to align with one partner at the expense of another. The agency argues that a more coordinated approach would help keep trade in critical minerals open, predictable, and development-oriented. It would also support a faster and more affordable energy transition. The central question is whether critical minerals will become another source of fragmentation or a foundation for more resilient and inclusive global cooperation.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.