The outlook for global food production is favorable, but the emergence of the El Niño climate event and the disruptions in energy and fertilizer trade caused by the war in the Middle East could alter this picture. This is the warning issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO, in a report on the global food outlook, released this Thursday (18). Markets sensitive to the crisis in the Middle East The agency's chief economist, Máximo Torero, stated that agri-food systems appear robust at the production level, "but risks are growing and many of them have the potential for rapid and adverse effects on global supply and access." According to "UN News," the expert stated that it is necessary to strengthen resilience by keeping trade flows open and the supply chain functioning, while countries prepare for local climate shocks. The document analyzes fertilizer market trends, documenting a 20 to 25% drop in global trade volumes between January and April 2026, compared to the same period of the previous year.
Harvests
Although there has been a recent reduction in prices that had risen, concerns persist for the upcoming 2026/27 agricultural season due to stagnant purchases in key markets such as Europe and North America, especially for nitrogen and phosphate. Market conditions remain highly sensitive to developments affecting maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, where the conflict between the United States, Iran, and Israel is unfolding. Regarding food commodities, one of the positive highlights of the report is the global soybean production for 2025/26, which is expected to set a new record of 432.3 million tons. This production is associated with continued crop growth in Brazil and Russia, offsetting projected reductions in Argentina, India, and North America. On the other hand, the document states that sugar production in Brazil is expected to decrease for the second consecutive season, mainly reflecting a reduction in the share of sugarcane destined for sugar production, amidst stronger demand for ethanol.
Wheat, meat and fish
Next year, global harvests of wheat, coarse grains, and rice are expected to fall from record levels, but will remain high, with supply supported by abundant stocks. Regarding wheat, the decline is estimated at 3.8%, to 810.9 million tons, due to lower harvests among major exporting countries and regions, especially Australia, the European Union, and the United States, where a 21.3% drop is currently expected. Global meat production is expected to increase by 1.0%, to 391.3 million tons, with poultry production increasing by 2.5% while beef production is expected to decrease. The fisheries and aquaculture sector is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2026, reaching 200.5 million tons, driven by shrimp, salmon, and carp production. On the other hand, a decrease of 1.1% in capture fisheries was observed, mainly due to the reduction of quotas for important stocks in the North Atlantic, including mackerel, herring and possibly cod, as well as Peruvian anchovies.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.