GDP of the soy and biodiesel supply chain will grow by 11.7% in 2025.

The GDP of the soybean and biodiesel supply chain grew by 11.72% in 2025, according to studies conducted by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) at Esalq/USP, in partnership with Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries). This positive result was driven by a record harvest in Brazil (2024/25) and the intensification of grain processing by the industry, which boosted agricultural services and inputs. As a result, the GDP of the production chain represented 21.6% of the agribusiness GDP in 2025 and 5.4% of the national GDP. Data from Cepea/Abiove show a 2.71% increase in the input segment, due to the expansion of the soybean area and the intensification of farmers' production, factors that stimulate the industry before the farm gate. For soybeans, the strong 23.41% GDP growth in 2025 stemmed from increased production, which reached a record 171.5 million tons in 2024/25, according to Abiove. In the agro-industry, the increase was 5.21% for the year, with growth in all sub-segments. In crushing, the annual GDP expansion of 5.15% reflected the strong demand for derivatives and the ample supply of soybeans. According to Cepea/Abiove, domestic consumption grew, driven by biodiesel, as did oil exports. In soybean meal, domestic consumption was at a record high, with exports also increasing. It should be noted that crushing volumes were at record levels in Brazil and worldwide. In the biodiesel sector, the high GDP growth (8.51%) reflected strong demand, reinforced by the increase in the mandatory blend from 14% to 15% starting August 1st, leading to a new record production in 2025. In the animal feed industry, the 2.80% increase was driven by sales to poultry farming, boosted by domestic demand, according to Sindirações. Finally, the GDP of agricultural services grew by 9.4% in 2025, driven by significant advances in the field and in agro-industry. Despite the positive GDP result, the real income of the production chain experienced a slight decline (0.55%), due to the deterioration of relative prices (-10.98%). The bearish price scenario resulted from the ample global supply of soybeans and derivatives, being partially mitigated by strong demand for these products. Considering the added value per ton in 2025, the GDP generated per ton of soybeans produced and processed (R$ 7,608) represented 4.09 times the GDP generated by soybeans produced and exported directly (R$ 1,862). LABOR MARKET The number of people employed in the soybean and biodiesel production chain totaled 2.39 million workers in 2025, an increase of 5.52% compared to the previous year. With this contingent, the production chain's share was 2.34% in the Brazilian economy and 10.21% in agribusiness, both slightly higher than in 2024. There was an increase in employment in inputs (3.43%), the biodiesel industry (2.49%), and agricultural services (9.91%), while reductions were observed in soybean production (-6.86%), the crushing industry (-7.75%), and animal feed (-2.11%). According to researchers at Cepea/Abiove, the expansion of soybean production increased the demand for inputs and services, boosting employment in these sectors. In the case of agricultural services, this effect was reinforced by increased processing activity. In the biodiesel industry, the growth in employment likely reflected the increase in production. Regarding the decline in soybean employment, Cepea/Abiove researchers point out that, even with strong production growth, the result reflects the fact that it is a highly mechanized and labor-intensive activity, in which variations in production do not necessarily translate into changes in employment. Furthermore, production volumes frequently fluctuate in response to weather conditions, without this implying similar variations in the workforce employed. In 2025, the decline seems to reflect both the contraction of employment in states with crop failures, such as Rio Grande do Sul, and the only moderate growth in employment in states like Mato Grosso, where production increased without a proportional expansion of employment. The reductions in employment in the crushing and feed industries should reflect factors such as changes in labor productivity, idle industrial capacity, and technological innovations, since the movement of the labor market contradicted the behavior of production. Job creation per thousand tons was 26.3 workers in soybean production and processing, 4.26 times higher than in soybean production and export (6.2 workers). FOREIGN TRADE Exports from the soybean and biodiesel chain totaled 133.72 million tons in 2025, an increase of 7.75% compared to 2024. However, the value of exports fell by 1.46% compared to the previous year, totaling US$ 53.46 billion in 2025, due to an 8.54% drop in average export prices in the chain. In general, international prices were pressured by the ample global supply of products in the chain, even in a scenario of strengthened demand. Export values increased for soybeans (1.36%), oil (10.39%), biodiesel (33.32%), and glycerol (+114.95%), but decreased for soybean meal (-18.43%) and soybean protein (-0.77%). China remained the main destination, but there was a significant increase in shipments to other groups: the European Union (+7.62%), Southeast Asia (+2.09%), and India (+20.35%).

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.