GAPKI projects that Indonesia’s crude palm oil production will decline due to El Niño and higher fertilizer prices.

Indonesia's crude palm oil production could fall by up to 2 million tons this year compared to the 2025 volume, due to dry weather caused by the phenomenon. El Niño and to high fertilizer prices, according to the president of Country's Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Eddy MartonoIndonesia announced on Wednesday (29) that the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has caused a 30% increase in fertilizer prices. Smallholders operating in the commodity sector, representing 37% of the country's production chain, are concerned about the scenario and may reduce or postpone the use of inputs. "If El Niño occurs, this will lead to a decline [in production] and, if fertilizer is applied until the end of the semester, it is possible that production will fall by 1 million to 2 million tons," said Martono, in an interview. Indonesia produced 51.66 million tons of crude palm oil in 2025, a 7.3% increase compared to 2024.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.