Orange production in the citrus belt of São Paulo and the Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro region is expected to reach 255.20 million boxes of 40.8 kg in the 2026/27 harvest, according to the first projection from Fundecitrus, released this Friday (May 8). The estimated volume is 12.9% lower than that harvested in the 2025/26 season (292.94 million boxes) and 14.7% below the average of the last decade. According to Fundecitrus, the decrease in production is due to the biennial cycle (natural productive fluctuation of orchards from one year to the next), the reduction in the number of fruits per tree, and the increase in the rate of premature fruit drop, factors that outweigh the positive effects of the greater weight of the fruits and the expansion of the number of productive trees in the citrus park. “This harvest is impacted by climate variability and increased pressure from citrus greening, affecting fruit set, fruit load, and fruit drop. Despite advances in average weight and the technological level of the orchards, the scenario demands rigorous management and continuous monitoring,” says Juliano Ayres, executive director of Fundecitrus. The last survey of the disease carried out by Fundecitrus, dated September 2025, indicated that citrus greening affected 47.6% of the orange trees in the citrus park. The first projection points to an average weight of oranges at harvest time of 160 grams, higher than the previous harvest. This increase is justified by the lower load per tree and better water conditions during development. The estimated average productivity is 697 boxes per hectare, a 13.8% decrease compared to the previous harvest. All varieties analyzed showed a decrease in yield. In addition to the lower number of fruits per tree, the projected rate of premature fruit drop (23.7%) and the fruit loss rate (31.3%) also contributed to the decline in productivity. "Among the main pressure factors are the advance of citrus greening, the incidence of leprosis, and the forecast of an event of…" El Niño "In the second half of 2026, the trend is towards a later harvest," says Fundecitrus.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.