Focus: Market projects a drop in the IPCA (Brazilian inflation index) for 2026, but adjusts upwards for 2027.

THE Central Bank (BC) released this Monday (13) a new edition of Focus Bulletin, with financial market projections collected up to last Friday (10).

Inflation (IPCA)

The median of the estimates for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) The 2026 forecast fell from 5.30% to 5.16%, while the 2027 forecast was raised from 4.18% to 4.20%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The projected growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The forecast for 2026 remained at 1.99%. However, for 2027, analysts reduced their estimate by 0.04 percentage points, to 1.65%.

Exchange

The market maintained its projection for the price of dollar at the end of this year and next year, at R$ 5.20 and R$ 5.28, respectively.

Selic rate

The estimate for the benchmark interest rate at the end of 2026 remained at 14.00% per year. For the end of 2027, the projection was 12.00% per year.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.