THE Central Bank (BC) released this Monday (22) a new edition of Focus Bulletin, with financial market projections collected up to last Friday (19).
Inflation (IPCA)
The median of the estimates for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) The 2026 forecast rose from 5.30% to 5.33% – the 15th consecutive week of increase. The projection for 2027 was also raised, from 4.10% to 4.15%.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The projected growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The forecast for 2026 was adjusted upwards, from 1.96% to 1.98%. For 2027, analysts maintained their estimate at 1.70%.
Exchange
The market maintained its projection for the price of dollar The year-end exchange rate is expected to be R$ 5.20. For next year, the expectation has risen from R$ 5.25 to R$ 5.27.
Selic rate
The estimate for the benchmark interest rate at the end of 2026 rose 0.25 percentage points to 14.00% per year – this was the third consecutive week of increase. Last week, the Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 0.25 pp to 14.25% per year. If the market projection is confirmed, the Central Bank would only execute one more cut of this magnitude this year. For the end of 2027, the market projection for the Brazilian interest rate remained at 12.00% per year.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.