The escalation of the war in the Middle East in recent days exposes the failure of the agreement brokered between Iran and the United States (US) to end the conflict that has already cost the lives of thousands of people in the region since February 28th. Attacks against Iran have increased, including bombings against civilian infrastructure such as bridges, a hospital, water desalination plants, fuel production facilities, and even a nuclear power plant construction site. On the other side, Iran is intensifying attacks against targets in Gulf countries such as Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, hitting both US military bases in these countries and some civilian infrastructure, such as water desalination plants and energy production facilities. The security and geopolitics expert, Portuguese Major General Agostinho Costa, stated to [source missing] "Agência Brasil" The former vice-president of the EuroDefense-Portugal Association stated that the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran was nothing more than a "lie" or a "diversionary tactic" by Washington in the face of depleted oil reserves caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "President Donald Trump signed the memorandum because he was informed that strategic oil reserves would last another four weeks, which would cause a crisis, mainly in diesel. The agreement was a fiction, with no intention of being fulfilled, like all the documents the Americans sign," he said. He added that, from the moment the US fulfilled the memorandum, they would be handing over control to Iran of the maritime route to US "client" countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Kuwait. "What is at stake is American hegemony in the region. It is the end of the American empire. That is what is at stake, and that is what has led the Americans to return to the attack," he concluded.
Jordan as a target
Political scientist and geopolitics expert Ali Ramos explained to "Agência Brasil" There are few differences between this new phase of the war and previous ones, with the most notable being Iran's heavier attacks against targets in Jordan. "This is because Jordan has become the largest logistical hub for the US Air Force due to the weaknesses of the Gulf bases. Furthermore, Israel is not directly involved in the war, but Ben Gurion Airport [in Israel] is also one of the largest US air bases in the region and is not being attacked, functioning as a kind of sanctuary," he highlighted. Ali Ramos, a scholar of Asia, Military Theory, and Defense, adds that the main objectives announced by the US for the war are not being achieved, such as ending the Iranian nuclear program, ending Tehran's ballistic missile program, and ending support for Middle Eastern militias. "With this, the US is escalating to a scorched earth war strategy, so much so that they attacked a desalination plant, leaving 10,000 people without water in Iran. But this will only give more legitimacy to the Iranian regime," he concluded.
USA without a strategy
According to Major General Agostinho Costa, the US is demonstrating a lack of a new strategy for this new phase of the war against Iran, repeating the aerial bombing campaigns against the Persian country that have not been yielding results since February 28th. “Once again, the Americans show they have no strategy whatsoever. On the one hand, they don't want to engage in a ground invasion; on the other, they believe they can solve a strategic problem with a country the size of Iran using only airplanes,” he commented. At the same time, the Portuguese military officer believes that Iran's offensive capabilities have proven effective, not appearing to be deteriorated, as the US government claims. “We are in what we can call 'conflict escalation management'. We are not yet at a stalemate, which should only occur when there is no longer any capacity for escalation. But there is still capacity for escalation,” he concluded.
Understand the war
According to analysts consulted by "Agência Brasil"The aggression launched by Israel and the US against Iran, both in June 2025 and from February 28th of this year, sought "regime change" in the Persian country to, among other objectives, halt China's economic expansion in the region and consolidate Israel's political and military hegemony in the Middle East. Given their failure to overthrow the political regime of the Islamic Republic in Iran, the US claims they are now seeking to restore navigation status in the Strait of Hormuz as it was before the war. However, the Iranian government asserts that the management of the Strait, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passed before the war, must have a new model to be defined primarily by Iran and Oman, taking into account the needs of Iranian national security.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.