Winter in the Southern Hemisphere begins at exactly 5:25 am next Sunday (21). The new season is known for its cold temperatures, but this year it will have a slightly different character. Because of the El Niño phenomenon, Brazilians will feel the cold less in the next three months. The forecast is from the meteorological consulting firm Nottus, which presented, on Thursday (18), a study on how the climatic phenomenon will impact the country, says a note from "Agência Brasil". El Niño is characterized by the abnormal warming of the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. A rise in sea temperature of 0.5 degrees Celsius (C°) above average already characterizes the condition. The United States Agency for Oceans and Atmosphere (NOAA) confirmed the start of El Niño last week.
Rain and drought
In Brazil, the season will be marked by higher-than-normal rainfall in the Southern Region, while precipitation will be shorter and less intense in the North and Northeast, increasing the chance of droughts. According to Alexandre Nascimento, managing partner and meteorologist at Nottus, winter should begin with lower temperatures, but "the effects of El Niño should curb the very low temperatures this year, especially from August onwards." This is because the combination of drier periods and northerly winds favors a gradual rise in temperatures, especially in the second half of winter. Therefore, "the perception may be of a milder winter." Alexandre Nascimento points out that this does not mean there will be no cold weather during the season. "Does El Niño bring cold? Yes, but these are short, very quick events," he says. He notes that some areas in the central region of the country should experience "veranicos," as periods of dry weather and atypically high temperatures that occur in the middle of autumn or winter are called.
Months and regions
By highlighting the main climatological characteristics of the coming months, the study shows that July should be marked by above-average rainfall in the Southeast and Midwest regions. In the South, rainfall will intensify from inland areas. August should see higher concentrations of rain in the far north of the country, as well as in the eastern part of the Northeast and the South region, where volumes may exceed the historical average. Between Minas Gerais, Goiás, and the interior of the Northeast, the dry season, typical of this time of year, will gradually establish itself. "From August onwards, we may start to see heat waves in the interior of the country," projects the meteorologist. For September, the highlight is the increasing rainfall in the South, exceeding the climatological average, while the Northeast will have below-average precipitation along the eastern and northern strips. Even with above-average rainfall predicted for the Southern Region, the Nottus meteorologist does not currently see a chance of storms like those that devastated Rio Grande do Sul in May and April 2024. "Without forecasts of extreme events, nothing comparable to that, for now," he points out.
Super El Niño
Based on information from NOAA, Alexandre Nascimento argues that, from September until February 2027, there is a high chance of a very strong El Niño, when the rise in water temperature exceeds 2.5°C. Concerned about the impacts of what is being called a "Super El Niño," the federal government has created an Interministerial Situation Room to prepare responses and manage potential disasters.
Electrical system
El Niño is expected to persist until at least the first half of 2027. According to the consulting firm, it is likely that there will be diverse effects on the Brazilian electrical system, which generates most of its energy from hydroelectric plants, meaning it is dependent on rainfall patterns that fill reservoirs. "I think that in 2026, El Niño will even be beneficial for the system," says Nascimento, attributing this assessment to the arrival of the rainy season in the South and parts of the Southeast. However, he points to a worrying scenario for 2027. "Next year, there is significant pressure, due to El Niño, for high consumption in the first quarter because of heat waves, and less rainfall in the North and Northeast," he notes.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.