A new phase of the global El Niño climate phenomenon could begin within weeks, putting the world's agricultural sector on alert. This warning comes from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which has mapped the regions where the risks to agriculture are highest. The FAO's analysis is based on satellite images collected over the last four decades, allowing it to identify areas where the most intense El Niño episodes tend to cause more severe droughts.
El Niño exposes vulnerabilities
The warning comes at a time when experts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipate a more intense cycle of this event than usual. According to UN News, the risks are higher in the Sahel, throughout Southern Africa, in South and Southeast Asia, and in the Dry Corridor of Central America and the Caribbean. Some agricultural and pasture areas face a greater than 50% probability of drought in the coming months. Many of these regions were already severely affected during the El Niño episodes of 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. The phenomenon highlights structural weaknesses, causing crop failures, livestock losses, increased household debt, and migratory movements.
Climatic phenomena intersect with instability.
Several countries within these regions are also highlighted in a recent analysis of hunger conducted by the FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP). This relationship demonstrates how climate shocks exacerbate acute food insecurity. According to the FAO, as the intersection of climate incidents with conflicts and economic pressures becomes more common, the risks associated with events such as El Niño are amplified. For the FAO's head of natural resources, Jorge Alvar-Beltrán, "the planet is much warmer today and, with widespread conflict and food insecurity, this new phase will hit harder those places that are already vulnerable and have limited capacity to respond."
Early planning allows you to mitigate impacts.
In some areas of the planet, the analysis can reduce the risk assessment to a single square kilometer. However, transforming this precision into protection requires coordinating meteorological and hydrological services, ministries of agriculture, and rural extension networks, ensuring that warnings reach farmers in a timely manner. The FAO's head of natural resources argues that "this level of detail changes what a government can do." Riccardo Soldan concludes that "instead of dispersing resources, it can concentrate support on critical points, directing cash transfers, support for water and irrigation, animal feed, and other essential inputs."
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.