THE DATAGRO released a new VIP Report theAnalyzing atmospheric and oceanic conditions that may indicate the formation of a more intense El Niño in the second half of 2026. Climate models indicate a 61% probability of the phenomenon forming between May and July.
Pacific waters register warming.
The last two weeks have recorded positive anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the El Niño monitoring region. Last week, the anomaly was at +0.2°C, considered neutral conditions. The warming of the Pacific waters is expected to persist in the coming months, with the phenomenon lasting at least until the end of 2026.
Westerly winds and positive subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have contributed to an increased risk of a strong El Niño. The winds blow in the opposite direction to the trade winds, weakening normal circulation and pushing warm waters eastward. The subsurface anomalies indicate a "stockpile" of warmer water below the surface, reaching a 6°C anomaly in recent weeks.
The American agency NOAA indicates a 25% probability of the event reaching very strong intensity (sound temperature anomaly > 2.0°C) by the end of the year. The agency itself emphasizes that this scenario depends on the persistence of westerly wind anomalies, something that is not guaranteed.
Regional impacts in Brazil
In the southern region, there will be a significant increase in rainfall and a higher frequency of extreme events, with a risk of torrential rains and strong wind gusts. In the southeast, El Niño will raise temperatures, increasing the risk of heat waves and wildfires.
The Central-West region will experience similar effects to the Southeast, except for the northern part, which may see a reduction in rainfall. The Matopiba region will face decreased rainfall frequency and increased temperatures, harming the second-half harvests.
For more information, visit the VIP Report in analysis section of DATAGRO Portal.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.