El Niño is expected to form in the coming weeks, warns DATAGRO.

As new VIP Report climate of DATAGROThe El Niño phenomenon is expected to form in the coming weeks and gain strength throughout the year, potentially reaching "super El Niño" intensity (sound temperature anomaly > 2.0°C) by the end of the year. Last week, the North American Meteorological Agency (NOAA)The likelihood of the El Niño climate phenomenon occurring between November 2026 and January 2027 has increased from 25% to 37%. In recent weeks, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have remained positive, although still within the neutral range. The expectation is that anomalies will reach the El Niño threshold (SST > 0.5°C) between the end of May and the beginning of June. The ocean-atmospheric scenario remains favorable for the intensification of the phenomenon. Westerly winds continue to be observed over the central equatorial Pacific, and positive subsurface temperature anomalies remain high. However, NOAA emphasizes that there is still significant uncertainty regarding the maximum intensity of the phenomenon. Historically, the most intense El Niño episodes have occurred when oceanic and atmospheric conditions remained favorable during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Furthermore, a strong El Niño does not guarantee severe impacts, it only increases the probability of certain extreme weather events. For more information, visit [link to NOAA website]. VIP Report in analysis session of DATAGRO Portal.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.