Egypt and South Africa are expanding their dominance in the global supply of table oranges, according to USDA data compiled by CitrusBR.

Egypt and South Africa have consolidated a dominant position in the global table orange market. Together, the two countries added an additional 300 million 40.8 kg boxes of oranges to the international table fruit trade between 2010 and 2026 (estimated). This data was compiled by CitrusBR based on the annual Citrus: World Markets and Trade reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). To give an idea of the scale, USDA data indicates that in 2010, global exports of table oranges totaled 97.9 million boxes. In that year, Egypt and South Africa together exported 47.6 million boxes, equivalent to 48.6% of the total. The rest of the world, particularly the United States, Europe, Turkey, and Morocco, accounted for 50.3 million boxes. By 2026, global trade is estimated to reach 121.1 million boxes, a 23.6% increase compared to 2010. Of this total, Egypt and South Africa are expected to export 83.3 million boxes, representing almost 69% of the entire world market for table oranges. Conversely, the so-called "Rest of the World" has lost market share. This group, which exported 50.3 million boxes in 2010, is expected to ship 37.8 million boxes in 2026. The growth of Egypt and South Africa occurs in a context of difficulties faced by traditional competitors. In the United States, the impacts of citrus greening in Florida and climate problems in California reduced exports from 18.3 million boxes in 2010 to an estimated 8 million boxes in 2026. This represents a 56% drop. In Europe, prolonged droughts and diseases have also affected production. Between 2010 and 2026, European production shrank by almost 14 million boxes, a 9.1% decrease. With less fruit available, European exports stagnated and began to decline, opening up space in the international market. South Africa was one of the main beneficiaries of this rearrangement. According to American reports, the country's production increased from 35 million to 46.5 million boxes, a 33% growth in the field. In the same period, exports advanced 60%, from 23.1 million to 36.7 million boxes. In addition to Europe, the main destination, China, Russia, and the United States became relevant markets for South African fruit. Egypt also expanded its international presence, especially from 2016 onwards. The combination of currency devaluation, international agreements with preferential tariffs, competitive costs, government support, and European financing strengthened the country's competitiveness in the fresh fruit trade.

Influence on the juice market

Although Brazil is a global leader in the orange juice market, Egypt and South Africa have made significant progress in an area where Brazilian citrus farming does not have a relevant share of international trade: fresh fruit. Based on 2010 data, with consolidated figures estimated up to 2026, while both countries expanded their presence in the table orange market, Brazil stopped exporting 570 million boxes of oranges in juice form. “While South Africa focused on the table fruit market, in Egypt the expansion in fresh fruit also contributed to increased processing and a more competitive position, especially in the European market,” analyzes Ibiapaba Netto, executive director of CitrusBR. For this year, the USDA estimates a total processing of 22 million boxes, a volume close to the total amount of fresh oranges exported by the country in 2010. "If the USDA estimates are confirmed, we are talking about a total of 78,000 tons of orange juice equivalent placed on the market during a period of falling demand," Netto points out.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.