The drought scenario faced by several Brazilian states should increase the demand for corn in the 2025/26 harvest in Mato Grosso. This is according to the new Supply and Demand bulletin from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), published on Monday (1st). Currently, states such as Goiás, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais and São Paulo are facing drought in their crops. With this scenario, Imea projects that the demand for the grain should increase in the state of Mato Grosso. Interstate consumption of corn for the 2025/26 harvest was estimated at 9.15 million tons. According to the institute's bulletin, this revision reflects precisely the expectation of a greater need for supply from regions impacted by adverse weather conditions, since they should have a reduction in the productive potential of crops affected by the lack of rain. In addition to interstate demand, the domestic market continues to expand in Mato Grosso. Consumption within the state was projected at 22.10 million tons, representing an estimated increase of 11.67% compared to the 2024/25 harvest. “The main factor behind this growth is the consolidation of corn agro-industrialization in Mato Grosso, driven primarily by the expansion of the animal protein chain, i.e., animal consumption and livestock intensification, and by the advancement of the corn ethanol industry,” highlighted Rodrigo Silva, coordinator of agricultural market intelligence at Imea. According to the bulletin, the entry into operation of two new plants in the state is altering the dynamics of the regional market, expanding the cereal's absorption capacity and sustaining domestic demand. Also for the 2025/26 corn harvest, international shipments were estimated at 23.10 million tons, a decrease of -4.47% compared to the projection for the 2024/25 harvest. As a consequence of the increased demand, the state's ending stocks continue on a downward trajectory. Imea estimates that Mato Grosso will end the harvest with only 620,500 tons in storage, a number 17.29% lower than previously predicted.
Production estimate
Also in this June 2026 report, Imea revised upwards the average corn productivity in the state, which is now estimated at 120.28 sacks per hectare. This represents a 1.32% increase compared to the previous survey. The revision was based on field surveys conducted by the Imea in the Field Project, as well as information collected from partners. The surveys also indicated that most of the crops in the state show good vegetative development and favorable production conditions, contributing to the increase in the state's productive potential. Among the regions with the best performances are the Mid-North, with an estimated productivity of 125.61 sacks per hectare, followed by the Northwest, with 121.10 sacks per hectare, and the West, with 120.82 sacks per hectare. With the cultivated area remaining at 7.39 million hectares and the increase in average productivity, the state's production was revised to 53.35 million tons. The volume represents a monthly growth of 1.32% and maintains Mato Grosso's leadership in national corn production.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.