Cotton: Anea raises its shipment estimate for the first half of the year to 1.827 million tons.

The National Cotton Exporters Association (Anea) updated its Brazilian Cotton Supply and Demand Table, revising upwards the estimate for the 2025/2026 crop, which goes from 3.955 million tons, according to the April projection, to 4.006 million tons, according to the figures consolidated at a board meeting last Tuesday (16). If the projection is confirmed, this will be the second largest crop in the country's history, behind only the record of 4.260 million tons obtained in 2024/2025. According to Anea, in recent months, the weather has been favorable for crops, mainly in Mato Grosso and Bahia, and this explains the increase of approximately 51,000 tons in production projections. According to the balance, exports for the first half of 2026, which were estimated at 1.600 million tons in April, should reach 1.827 million tons exported, a record when considering the semester. “We have never had such a strong first half of the year in history as this one, and June isn't even over yet,” comments the president of Anea, Dawid Wajs. For the second half of the year, the projection was adjusted to approximately 1.557 million tons, compared to 1.61 million tons estimated in the previous update. In total, Anea projects exports of 3.359 million tons in 2026, a volume higher than the 3.21 million tons projected in April, and a new record for the sector. The increase in shipments in the first half of the year is also reflected in a decrease in carryover stock. According to the survey, the estimate for the end of June 2026 fell from 934,000 tons, projected in April, to 708,000 tons. For December 2026, the ending stock is estimated at 2.794 million tons, slightly below the 2.910 million tons projected in the previous update. “It’s a considerable reduction of almost 225,000 tons, which shows the competitiveness of Brazilian cotton in the destination market, with a strong appetite for our cotton, and, of course, the efficiency of our merchants, our associates, in marketing the product,” says the president of Anea. The organization also updated its projections for the 2026/2027 harvest, which were raised from 3.870 million tons, according to the April estimate, to 3.960 million tons. Dawid Wajs explains that the numbers are supported by more attractive prices and an apparent stability in fertilizer costs. “This also impacts what we foresee for exports next year, because we will certainly have more cotton. But it’s still too early to give a definitive number,” he cautions. According to Anea's assessment, exports in the first half of 2027 should reach 1.667 million tons and those in the second half, 1.563 million tons. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.