The Regional Cooperative of Coffee Growers in Guaxupé held its 8th Coffee and Climate Forum on July 29th in Guaxupé (MG). The meeting brought together experts to present an analysis of the meteorological conditions recorded throughout the last agricultural cycle, their impact on the 2026/2027 harvest, and the climate outlook for coffee production in 2027, marked by the influence of a strong El Niño. “In addition to analyzing the climatic conditions and projections for the coming harvests, the speakers shared technical guidance to support cooperative members in planning coffee-growing activities, making decisions, and mitigating risks throughout the production cycle,” highlighted the president of Cooxupé, Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo.
Area of operation of the coffee cooperative
The coordinator of the Geoprocessing Department at Cooxupé, Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira, presented an analysis of the climatic conditions throughout the production cycle and their impact on the 2026/2027 harvest in the cooperative's area of operation. According to him, the delay in vegetative development, which began in 2024, reduced the productive potential of the crops and dashed expectations of a bumper crop. "The harvest is considered good, with yields within the historical average, but it is not a bumper crop, as the productive capacity was compromised early in the cycle," he stated. The specialist explained that vegetative development was considered average, with the formation of 12 to 13 internodes, followed by three more significant flowerings, resulting in less uniform maturation and harvesting. Between January and March, the high volumes of rain hampered cultural practices, favored the incidence of pests and diseases, and delayed nutritional and phytosanitary management. Between April and July, weather conditions initially accelerated fruit ripening, but subsequently delayed harvesting, increased post-harvest challenges, and favored leaf and fruit drop. According to Guilherme Teixeira, recent rainfall and temperature fluctuations also compromised bud synchronization, which could bring forward and multiply flowering in the next harvest. “Although the crops currently have between 14 and 15 internodes, this scenario does not guarantee a bumper crop in 2027. Areas with medium and low yields were the most affected by the rains in the final phase of the cycle and by the higher ethylene production, requiring technical monitoring and appropriate management to preserve the productive potential of future harvests,” he stated.
Strong El Niño should mark the 2026/2027 cycle
Agrometeorologist and founding partner of Rural Clima, Marco Antônio dos Santos, confirmed that the 2026/2027 harvest will be influenced by a strong El Niño, with the potential to be among the three most intense recorded in the last 76 years. According to him, the phenomenon should cause high temperatures during the end of winter, the spring of 2026 and the summer of 2027, in addition to sporadic periods of drought. “El Niño is confirmed and should be one of the three largest ever recorded in the historical series. We will have very high temperatures throughout the spring and summer,” he reported. Despite the above-average heat scenario, Marco Antônio highlighted that the South and Southwest regions of Minas Gerais and the Médio Mogiana region of São Paulo should register relatively regular rainfall, favoring crop development. The Cerrado Mineiro region, however, should experience the greatest impacts of the phenomenon, with the possibility of dry periods during the second half of spring (November/December) and throughout the summer. The expert stressed, however, that one of the main points of attention will be the behavior of the flowering. The wetter winter and the beginning of spring with more frequent rainfall may favor the occurrence of multiple flowerings, increasing the challenge for crop management. "The biggest concern is with the multiple flowerings, which may occur due to the wetter winter and the rainy beginning of spring," he considered.
Risk mitigation: planning and proactive management
Professor José Donizeti Alves, PhD in Plant Physiology from the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), highlighted that although the El Niño predicted for the 2026/2027 cycle represents a challenge for coffee farming, its effects can be minimized with planning and the adoption of appropriate technologies. According to him, the post-harvest period is crucial for preparing crops for the next flowering and preserving productive potential in the face of a more adverse climate scenario. "El Niño will be strong, but it is not invincible. Today there are technologies capable of mitigating its effects. The greatest risk is when the producer fails to plan and execute the necessary practices," he analyzed. Among the main recommendations, Donizeti emphasized the importance of anticipating cultural practices, with special attention to phytosanitary management, fertilization, and the use of biostimulants. For him, these practices strengthen the plants, increase their ability to cope with climatic stresses, and create more favorable conditions for the emission and development of flowering. "All planning needs to begin now, in the post-harvest phase. It is at this moment that the producer prepares the crop to face the challenges of the next cycle," he stated. The researcher also highlighted the role of the root system in the resilience of crops. Based on observations made during the 2024 El Niño, he affirmed that coffee plants with deep roots showed a greater capacity to withstand long periods without rain, maintaining plant development even in drought conditions. "A crop with a well-developed root system can access water and nutrients at greater depths, becoming more resistant to periods of drought. When roots and aerial parts mutually strengthen each other, the plant gains the capacity to face climatic stresses and preserve its productive potential," he concluded.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.