At 11:06 am (Brasilia time) this Friday (22), the July contract for Arabica coffee traded on Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) The price was stable, quoted at US$340.90 per 60 kg bag. The September contract, however, registered a slight increase of 0.33%, to US$321.00/bag. New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex)The July contract was down 0.15%, at US$270.00/sc, while the September contract showed a downward bias (-0.02%), quoted at US$265.45/sc. This morning, the market is reacting to crop updates from important producing countries. National Supply Company (Conab) Brazilian coffee production is estimated at 66.7 million bags in the 2026 harvest, an 18% increase compared to the previous cycle. (In the projections of…) DATAGROThe outlook remains even more optimistic, with the 2026/27 Brazilian harvest potentially reaching 73 million bags. The expectation is for a production of 48 million bags of Arabica and 25 million bags of Robusta, reflecting favorable weather conditions and an expansion of production areas. Outside of Brazil, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) The report indicated an increase in supply in a significant portion of the analyzed producers, notably Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, Costa Rica, and Uganda, while Peru is expected to remain practically stable and Nicaragua is expected to register a decline. Vietnam continues to be the main highlight in terms of volume, with production projected at 32.5 million bags (+800,000 bags), sustained by production expansion after the high prices of 2024/25. In Colombia, production should rise to 13.4 million bags (+900,000 bags), favored by drier conditions and crop renewal, while Ethiopia should reach 12.1 million bags (+540,000 bags), supported by better yields and advances in agronomic practices. In Uganda, supply should increase slightly to 7.16 million bags (+65,000 bags), and Costa Rica should grow to 1.2 million bags (+40,000 bags). Peru is expected to remain virtually stable at 4.78 million bags (+16,000 bags), with management gains offset by weather and pests. In contrast, Nicaragua is expected to decline to 2.44 million bags (-120,000 bags), pressured by the risk of El Niño, drought in Central America, and higher fertilizer costs.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.