China is expected to reduce imports of key agricultural commodities in 2026, according to the report “China Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035”, supported by the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and released on Monday (20). Projections indicate a drop in imported volumes of soybeans (-6.1%), pork (-8.2%), beef (-3.9%) and dairy products (-4.1%). According to the report, agricultural prices should remain relatively stable in the short term, but with an upward trend throughout the year. “Overall, agricultural commodity prices are likely to remain stable, with most commodities showing stability initially before rising during the year,” the document highlights. The Chinese strategy foresees a continuous increase in domestic grain production, with an advance of 733 million tons in 2030 and 753 million tons in 2035. These volumes represent increases of 2.5% and 5.3%, respectively, compared to the record harvest of 715 million tons in 2025. With greater domestic production, China should gradually reduce its need for imports. Total grain purchases are expected to fall to 115 million tons in 2035, compared to 140.56 million tons in 2025. In the case of soybeans, the main item in the Chinese agricultural export portfolio, imports are expected to decrease to 82.55 million tons, a 26.2% drop compared to the record 111.83 million tons in 2025.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.