Chance of Super El Niño rises to 81%, according to NOAA update.

El Niño conditions continue to intensify in the Pacific Ocean, and the probability of the phenomenon reaching Super El Niño status between October and December of this year has risen to 81%, according to an update released by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The expectation is that the event will persist until the beginning of 2027, increasing the risk of significant changes in weather patterns in various producing regions of the world. According to the analysis, since the second week of June, the Equatorial Pacific has experienced a moderate El Niño, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies between +1.1°C and +1.2°C. In addition to the warming of surface waters, above-average temperatures were observed in the subsurface layers of the ocean, along with westerly winds, conditions that favor the continuation and strengthening of the phenomenon. Climate models indicate that the peak of El Niño should occur between October and December, with sea surface temperature anomalies ranging between +1.9°C and +2.4°C. If this scenario is confirmed, the episode could rank among the most intense since the beginning of modern records, alongside the events of 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16. In Brazil, the first effects of the phenomenon began to be observed at the end of June, with the formation of an atmospheric blocking over the Southeast region, hindering the advance of cold fronts and concentrating rainfall between northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The expectation is that the influence of El Niño will become more evident from September onwards. For the Southern region, the forecast points to increased rainfall, with a greater risk of storms and episodes of intense precipitation. In the North region, the trend is for reduced rainfall, which could compromise the start of the Amazonian winter, a period that is normally the rainiest between December and May. In the Center-South, from October onwards, models indicate reduced rainfall in the northern part of the region and more frequent rainfall in the southern part, in addition to the maintenance of above-average temperatures, increasing the potential for heat waves during the spring. Internationally, NOAA also projects impacts on Asia. The monsoons are expected to weaken mainly in India and Indonesia, while Thailand and Vietnam tend to suffer more limited effects from the phenomenon.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.