The July-August-September quarter will deepen the drought trend in the central regions of the country, impacting the second corn crop and pasture renewal, according to the Agroclimatological Bulletin of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). Continued heavy rainfall is also expected in the central and northern parts of the North and South regions, and along the coast of the Northeast, areas with significant rainfall accumulations and good soil water reserves, according to a note from "Agência Brasil". This month's bulletin, which analyzes climatic conditions across the country and phenomena that affect the country's climate, such as El Niño (warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) and temperature variations in the Atlantic, will impact major crops such as corn, beans, and cotton, depending on the region analyzed. Pasture recovery was also assessed by the Inmet survey. According to the Institute's forecast, the coming months will see predominantly below-average rainfall in much of the North region. In areas of northern Amazonas, rainfall deviations of up to 100 millimeters (mm) below the climatological average are expected. Regarding temperature, values above the climatological average are predicted for most of the region, with anomalies of up to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) in the states of Amazonas, Acre, Pará, Roraima, Tocantins, and northern Rondônia. This condition favors scenarios of low river levels and greater vulnerability of environments to fires, although the region has had good water distribution in a considerable part of its territory. "Even with the forecast of below-average rainfall and higher temperatures, the high levels of water storage in the soil in these areas tend to favor second-crop corn and sorghum crops in the maturation and harvesting phase between July and August, contributing to the reduction of grain moisture, expansion of operational harvesting windows, and preservation of the quality of the harvested product," the report points out. An impact is also expected on late-planted corn crops and pastures in September, especially in Tocantins, Amapá, and southeastern Pará, where the water deficit could reach 130 mm.
Irregular rainfall
In June, according to Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology), there was an irregular distribution of rainfall, concentrated in the areas already described (northern part of the North Region, the coastal strip of the Northeast Region, and part of the South Region), with monthly totals above 150 mm and maintenance of soil water storage levels above 70% of the available water capacity (AWC). These conditions favor crops that are in a phase of water consumption, such as the growth phase of corn (second crop) and beans. Most of Mato Grosso, Goiás, the Federal District, Tocantins, northern Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, the interior of the Northeast Region, southern Pará, and Rondônia, in turn, recorded monthly accumulations below 40 mm and lower levels of soil water storage. These areas, as well as southeastern Pará, have soil water storage levels below 15% of the AWC, which is expected to worsen in the coming months. This condition also hinders pasture growth, which will have short- and medium-term impacts on livestock.
Southern Region
In the South, conditions were favorable for the development of corn crops in Paraná, which experienced significant rainfall. "In general, winter crops are showing good development. However, the persistence of frequent rains, associated with lower availability of solar radiation, favors the occurrence of fungal diseases," warns Inmet. "This requires greater attention from producers, especially in crops at more advanced phenological stages, where the impact on productivity can be more significant," it adds.
North East
According to the forecast, temperatures are expected to remain above the historical average throughout the Northeast Region, with anomalies ranging from 0.5°C to 1.0°C in most areas. The largest deviations are predicted for Maranhão, the far west of Bahia, and the southwest and north-central parts of Piauí, potentially reaching up to 2°C above the climatological average. The coastal strip should not experience significant drought impacts, thanks to meteorological systems such as Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWDs), which bring moisture from the ocean. In August, the deficit will intensify and expand to the far west of Bahia and inland areas of Paraíba and Pernambuco. In September, the forecast indicates deficits exceeding 100 mm in much of the region's interior. "This scenario requires greater attention to third-crop corn and bean fields, grown under rainfed conditions, especially those in reproductive or grain-filling stages," says the study. “Under these conditions, the increased evapotranspiration demand could compromise flowering, pod formation, and grain filling, risking a reduction in productive potential, especially in the eastern semi-arid region and in areas of the Sealba axis (Sergipe, Alagoas, and eastern Bahia),” he explains. Cotton crops, in turn, will see quality gains, which is not observed with pastures, which are expected to experience a considerable drop in productivity in the coming quarter.
Warmer air
The Central-West region will experience an anomaly with warmer air, varying around 2°C. The favorable rainfall scenario in the first half of the year tends to guarantee a good harvest for the region in the coming months, for corn, sorghum, and cotton. The predominance of drier conditions tends to favor the completion of harvesting activities and the preparation of agricultural areas for the next crop. In the Pantanal region, the forecast is for a balanced winter, while northern Mato Grosso and northeastern Goiás should experience a water deficit later this quarter.
Reservoirs
The Southeast Region will maintain average rainfall levels, with the exception of Espírito Santo and northeastern Minas Gerais, where a water deficit is expected. The entire region should experience temperatures approximately 1°C above historical averages. Given the expected high average temperatures for the quarter, coffee cultivation, vegetables, and irrigated winter crops should have good productivity conditions. However, INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) warns of pressure on the region's water reservoirs, which are expected to have above-average demand.
Warning about fungi.
In the South, significant water surpluses are expected, especially in July and September, when volumes could exceed 150 mm. The areas with the highest prevalence will be northern Rio Grande do Sul and southern Santa Catarina. This condition favors winter crops but requires greater phytosanitary care, as it allows for greater development of fungal pests. Furthermore, the bulletin warns of frequent rainfall that could reduce the operational windows for carrying out crop management practices, such as fertilizer and pesticide applications. According to Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology), these rains are related to the El Niño phenomenon, confirmed by the patterns adopted by the institute, and are expected to continue until February 2027. This year, however, a significant variation in the thermal gradient of the Tropical Atlantic Dipole, a phenomenon similar to that of the Pacific waters (El Niño), is not expected. Therefore, conditions in the Atlantic in the coming months tend to be neutral. The same cannot be said of El Niño, which will be intense and is already impacting rainfall in the Southern Region, the Pacific coast of South America, and temperatures in North America, Europe, and East Asia.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.