The CEAGESP price index fell 1.63% in June compared to a 3.15% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the index had shown a decrease of 0.13%, and with this result, it ended the period with an accumulated decrease of 4.26% for the year and 8.52% over 12 months. In this context, the highlight was the Vegetable sector, which reversed the upward trend observed in the previous month and showed the largest percentage decrease among all sectors analyzed, driven mainly by the reduction in the prices of tomatoes and colored peppers.
Sectoral Analysis
The FRUIT sector fell 0.51% compared to a 0.02% drop in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a 0.22% decrease, and with this result, it ended the month with a cumulative decrease of 7.72% for the year and 3.60% over 12 months. Of the 49 items quoted in this basket of products, 47% showed a price decrease. The main price drops occurred in papaya (-31.84%), watermelon (-27.43%), lime orange (-15.50%), star fruit (-14.40%), and crimson grapes (-13.57%). The main price increases occurred in dragon fruit (+109.10%), Tommy Atkins mango (+43.87%), acerola (+32.02%), imported plum (+31.68%), and apple banana (+28.06%). The fruit sector ended June with a slight decrease of 0.51%, subtly deepening the 0.02% drop observed in the previous month. This deflationary behavior was mainly conditioned by the slowdown in domestic demand, a direct reflection of the cold weather, which reduced the consumption of fruits with high water content and refreshing characteristics. Hawaiian papaya led the sector's declines with a 31.84% drop in prices. This movement stems from the gradual recovery of the monthly supply volume in the main supplying areas of Espírito Santo and Bahia. However, demand in the wholesale market of the São Paulo Terminal Warehouse (ETSP) cooled due to low temperatures, which ultimately led to a slower pace of sales. Watermelon clearly illustrates the demand shock induced by the cold weather. Despite the decrease in the monthly supply volume, the price of the fruit fell by 27.43%. The increase in winter production ensured the flow of goods into the warehouse, but the low temperatures recorded in the capital made it impossible to sustain prices. Prices for lime oranges fell, while the monthly supply volume increased. This movement is seasonally expected, given the increased supply with the arrival of the 2026/2027 harvest. The greater availability of the product in the wholesale market, combined with the trend of consumption shifting from natural juices to hot beverages on cold days, contributed to the price reduction. At ETSP (São Paulo Wholesale Market), the item closed the period quoted at R$ 2.18/kg, with a 12-month price variation of 18.3%. With the period of highest supply volume between May and July at ETSP, carambola is in its seasonal harvest cycle. In addition, reductions in demand for the product due to the cold weather and the June festivities are among the factors that contributed to the price reduction in the wholesale market. Meanwhile, Crimson grapes, whose origin is predominantly the São Francisco Valley, registered a severe drop in the monthly supply volume (-49.9%) at ETSP. Even with the monthly reduction in supply, wholesalers had to reduce margins to clear remaining stocks as a way to stimulate sales of the product in a month unfavorable for the consumption of seedless table grapes. The VEGETABLES sector fell 8.94% compared to a 12.95% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown an increase of 11.16%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of 64.93% for the year and 30.46% over 12 months. Of the 32 items quoted in this basket of products, 41% showed a price decrease. The main decreases occurred in the prices of Sweet Grape tomatoes (-29.71%), cherry tomatoes (-24.73%), red bell peppers (-18.32%), Carmem tomatoes (-17.95%) and Pizzad'oro tomatoes (-16.04%). The main price increases occurred in the following crops: cambuci pepper (+54.23%), jiló (+39.47%), Japanese pumpkin (+15.03%), Japanese eggplant (+12.47%), and green bell pepper (+10.59%). The strong price correction movement in the sector was mainly structured by the beginning of the winter harvest in the main producing regions. The predominantly dry and cold weather significantly reduced field losses, favoring the yield of tomato and bell pepper crops, accelerating the entry of these products into the ETSP (São Paulo Wholesale Market). The tomato production chain played an important role in the price reduction observed in the sector during the period. The increase in the monthly supply volume of Carmem tomatoes (+35.9%) pressured price adjustments, reflecting the progress of the winter harvest in important markets such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais. In the special table tomato segments, Sweet Grape tomatoes and cherry tomatoes also showed an improvement in the monthly supply volume. The high productivity of protected cultivation areas ensured the regularity of the flow of these products into the wholesale market. In turn, the Pizzad'oro tomato registered a price decrease even with a reduction in the monthly supply volume. From a microeconomic perspective, this phenomenon illustrates the effect of the cross-price elasticity of demand. With the abundance of Carmem tomatoes at more advantageous prices, the market promoted a substitution of purchases. This migration reduced the liquidity of Pizzad'oro tomato sales, which ultimately forced wholesalers to lower prices to avoid losses. The reduction in the price of red bell peppers represents a rebalancing of prices, given the overvaluation observed in previous periods. This item, frequently produced in greenhouses, showed a slight increase in the monthly supply volume which, combined with reduced demand, further contributed to the cooling of prices. At ETSP, the product ended the period quoted at R$ 6.35/kg. The VEGETABLES sector rose +6.67% compared to a 4.44% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a variation of -7.16%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of 48.77% for the year and 35.38% over 12 months. Of the 39 items quoted in this basket of products, 67% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of curly lettuce (+36.72%), smooth lettuce (+26.91%), cilantro (+23.94%), hydroponic curly lettuce (+17.88%) and hydroponic smooth lettuce (+13.19%). The main decreases occurred in the prices of parsley (-27.35%), broccoli (-25.17%), cauliflower (-12.75%), Swiss chard (-11.33%) and green/smooth cabbage (-9.93%). The price increase in the vegetable sector was driven by a supply shock, mainly affecting lettuce, due to climatic factors that impacted production in the São Paulo Green Belt. The presence of polar air masses kept minimum temperatures below 10°C in the early mornings, delaying the development cycle of leafy vegetables. The low temperature slowed the plants' metabolism, preventing them from reaching the standard quality required by the market. In addition to the climatic factor, the area planted with lettuce for this production cycle was significantly reduced by farmers. According to market information, this decision was motivated by low profitability and, consequently, by operational losses generated during the 2025/2026 harvest. In the market flow, the price inelasticity of the (daily) replenishment demand in the food sector accelerated the price increase as competition for higher-quality lots intensified. It is important to highlight that, although the hydroponic system in greenhouses mitigates damage caused by direct soil and rain weather, the lower insolation and intense cold of the early mornings also limited the growth rate of protected leafy vegetables, reducing the harvest volume and raising prices. The MISCELLANEOUS sector rose 1.06% compared to a 21.74% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a decrease of 2.90%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated increase of 49.24% for the year and 8.83% over 12 months. Of the 11 items quoted in this basket of products, 55% showed a price increase. The main increases occurred in the prices of brushed potatoes (+15.45%), national onions (+11.59%), dried coconut (+10.97%), national garlic (+1.70%), and red eggs (+1.35%). The main price drops occurred in Asterix potatoes (-8.82%), washed potatoes (-3.66%), skinless peanuts (-2.79%), quail eggs (-0.94%), and white eggs (-0.55%). Brushed potatoes showed atypical behavior, registering a price increase even with an increase in the monthly supply volume. This market movement reflects the transition between the end of the harvest in the South region and the slow and gradual beginning of the first harvests in the states of Minas Gerais, Goiás, and São Paulo. Under these conditions, the market ends up prioritizing brushed (common) potatoes due to their greater storage resistance, which allows for price increases. With the end of the outflow of national onions from the South region, the São Paulo wholesale market became dependent on production from regions in the Southeast. However, the beginning of the harvest season in these regions was hampered by rains that generated problems with moisture and bulb quality. The lower availability of quality onions in the wholesale market was a determining factor in the observed price increase. At ETSP, the item closed the period quoted at R$ 4.14/kg. The cultural seasonality of the June festivals caused a demand shock for dried coconut. In June, the commercialization of the product is intense for the production of typical dishes and sweets at this time of year. Domestic garlic continues to face competition from imported garlic, which enters the national market and ends up setting a limit on price increases for the product. This price limit established by competition from imports led, according to market information, to a reduction in the planted area. Thus, the reduction in monthly availability helped to keep product prices down. The FISH sector fell 2.00% compared to a 1.00% increase in the previous month. In the same period last year, the sector had shown a decrease of 5.41%, and with the result obtained, it ended the month with an accumulated decrease of 3.56% for the year and 18.23% over 12 months. Of the 30 items quoted in this basket of products, 57% showed a price decrease. The main decreases occurred in the prices of mullet (-37.65%), anchovy (-14.11%), yellow croaker (-10.40%), whiting (-8.47%) and jackfish (-6.84%). The main increases occurred in the prices of swordfish (+23.23%), grouper (+9.79%), saltwater catfish (+6.80%), saltwater croaker (+6.52%) and mackerel (+4.54%). Among the items that showed a price reduction, mullet stands out, with its peak entry period at ETSP being the months of March to June. The considerable increase in the monthly supply volume (+38.8%) favored a cooling of prices. This increase in supply was driven by cold fronts that stimulated the species' migration route, coinciding with the artisanal fishing season in Santa Catarina, where the harvest traditionally occurs between May and July, when migratory schools seek warmer waters. Mullet fishing on the Santa Catarina coast is an essentially artisanal activity that mobilizes entire communities. The increase in supply at ETSP (+38.8%) therefore reflects the peak of the Santa Catarina harvest, which naturally exerted downward pressure on mullet prices in the São Paulo wholesale market. Anchovy is a relevant species for fishing activity in the South and Southeast regions during the autumn-winter period. The advance of icy waters attracts large schools, marking a time of high supply volume of the product. As a result, prices tend to decrease in the wholesale market. At ETSP, the item closed the period quoted at R$ 20.09/kg, registering a price variation of -44.2% in the last 12 months. The lower prices of mullet and anchovy in the wholesale market caused a substitution effect involving yellow croaker and whiting. Bars and restaurants, the main consumers of these fish, opted to substitute both, increasing the commercialization of seasonal species. The loss of liquidity forced a reduction in the price of whiting, even with a lower monthly supply volume. However, the high rate of artisanal and industrial mullet catches led the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture to decree the preventive closure of activities on June 7, 2026. This preventive closure of mullet fishing should reduce the presence of this species in the wholesale market by mid-July, limiting downward pressure. This could lead, in the short term, to a price recovery for other more valuable species.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.