Canada is expected to harvest 36.2 million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season, a 10% drop compared to the previous cycle, according to a report from the attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Ottawa, published this Tuesday (28). The projection reflects a 1% reduction in the planted area, to 10.8 million hectares, in addition to expectations of lower productivity.
The largest decline is expected in durum wheat, followed by winter wheat and spring wheat. Producers are shifting to more profitable crops, such as soybeans in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, as well as barley and canola in Saskatchewan and Alberta, a move driven by high stocks and less attractive wheat prices.
With lower supply, Canadian exports are also expected to decline in the 2026/27 crop year. This scenario is reinforced by the expectation of a strengthening Canadian dollar against the US dollar, which tends to reduce the competitiveness of the country's wheat in the international market.
Domestic consumption is expected to fall by 8%, mainly due to lower availability of wheat for animal feed. Conversely, the milling industry will receive a boost with the opening, in November 2026, of a new Parrish & Heimbecker (P&H) mill in Alberta, with a capacity to process 230,000 tons per year and serve markets in Canada and the United States.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.