CS Brazil May End the 25/26 Crop with Lower Sugar Stocks

● Sugar shipments through the ports of CS Brazil have been running at a stronger pace in 1Q26. Taking into account the vessel lineup for the month of March, exports could total 5.38 mmt since January, 18.1% higher YoY.

● Therefore, also considering a stable volume of outflows to the domestic market, DATAGRO estimates that ending sugar stocks in CS Brazil could reach 1.80 mmt by March 31, down 7.0% YoY.

● However, the tightness in stocks is unlikely to be resolved as soon as mills begin operating in the region, as producers plan to maximize ethanol production during the initial third of the 26/27 crop.

● There is a probability that sugar stocks during 2Q26 will remain around 9% to 10% below the volumes observed in the same period last year.