India may restrict sugar exports

● India’s 25/26 crop is nearing its end amid a growing perspective that sugar production may end up lower than 29 mmt, and, thus, below domestic consumption (~29 mmt).

● On top of that, given skyrocketing oil prices, the government of India appears increasingly interested in a further expansion of its ethanol mandate, through an increase in the blend rate above the 20% mark.

● The last time India restricted sugar exports happened in 22/23.

● As a backdrop, the government is reportedly concerned about US$ 2.02 billion in cane payment delays (value to be paid by mills to farmers) have piled up till end of March.