The reduction in wheat planting area in Brazil is expected to lead the country to record imports, close to 8 million tons in the 2026/27 cycle, making the external market the main source of supply, projects the Paraná Wheat Industry Union (Sinditrigo-PR). Paraná concentrates the largest wheat milling industry in the country, accounting for 30% of the national flour production. Even with the global balance between supply and demand guaranteed, Brazilian supply will remain dependent on the fluidity of international trade, which leaves the milling industry more exposed to the external scenario in terms of prices, availability, and quality of its main suppliers. Although the global balance indicates high stocks, the current situation shows a strong concentration of these volumes in a few exporting countries, while several importing regions remain structurally deficient. Thus, market equilibrium depends less on the total volume available and more on the fluidity of international trade. In the short term, the situation is strained by the off-season in the main exporters of the northern hemisphere, such as the United States, Europe, and Russia. During this period, the immediate physical supply becomes more restricted, increasing dependence on stocks and heightening market sensitivity to factors such as climate, geopolitics, and fund movements. As a consequence, international prices remain firm, even in the face of a theoretically comfortable global balance. For Brazil, this dynamic reinforces the centrality of the external market in price formation, since import parities are crucial for domestic supply. In this context, Argentine wheat stands out as the most competitive origin due to its logistical proximity and integration into Mercosur.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.