Brazil felt the increase in oil prices less than other countries, says Ineep.

Gasoline and diesel prices in Brazil rose less than the international average following the conflict with Iran provoked by the United States and Israel. The comparative survey was prepared by the Zé Eduardo Dutra Institute for Strategic Studies of Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep) – a research center linked to the Unified Federation of Oil Workers (FUP), which is affiliated with the Unified Workers' Central (CUT), according to a note from "Agência Brasil". Between February 23 and June 8, the average global percentage increase was 17.5% for gasoline and 23.3% for diesel, while in Brazil the increases were 4.9% and 13.6%, respectively. During this period, the pressure for fuel price increases in Brazil was significantly lower than that observed in the United States and Argentina, for example. In the US, the world's leading economy and largest consumer of petroleum products, gasoline rose 36.1%, and diesel, 36.8%. In Argentina, Brazil's largest economic partner in South America, the increases were 21.1% and 23.7%, respectively. According to Ineep, the federal government's pricing and subsidy policy favored the stabilization of fuel prices in Brazil. "The emergency measures adopted to contain the effects of the oil shock on fuel prices were very important," assesses a press release published this Thursday (18) in the new edition of the Fuel Price Bulletin, published by the institute.

Sector vulnerabilities

However, Ineep considers the measures to be “insufficient to address the sector's structural vulnerabilities.” According to the research center, “reducing the domestic market's exposure to international volatility depends on a long-term strategy based on strengthening Petrobras, expanding its refining capacity, and re-establishing its presence in strategic links of the supply chain, especially in distribution.” The timeframe in which Ineep observes fuel price variations includes the start of air operations against Iran and the death of Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme religious leader. It also covers the months of paralysis of the maritime route in the Strait of Hormuz and the beginning of diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States to end the conflict. During this period, Ineep also notes that ethanol (hydrated ethanol) “showed a significant drop of 7.3%, reflecting the start of the 2026/2027 harvest and an increase in supply, even more intense than in previous years.”

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.