Australian cotton exports are expected to fall 23% to 4.7 million bales in 2026/27, according to the USDA.

Australian cotton exports are expected to decline significantly in the 2026/27 crop year, reflecting adjustments in trade flows after a previous cycle of high shipments, according to the attaché's annual report. from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Canberra. According to the document, Australian shipments are projected to 4.7 million bales in 2026/27fall of 23% facing 6.1 million bales estimated for 2025/26, which represented one of the largest volumes in the country's historical series. Despite the decline, the exported volume should still remain around 24% above the average of the last 10 yearsThis reinforces Australia's relevance as the third largest exporter of the commodity, behind only Brazil and the United States. Regarding production, Australia is expected to reach… 4.9 million bales in 2026/27, slightly higher compared to 4.65 million bales estimated for 2025/26This growth is mainly driven by improved water availability for irrigation in northern regions. However, this increase is not enough to offset the effect of lower water supply from the previous cycle, which limits the volume that can be exported during this period. According to… USDAThe drop in exports is not associated with a significant contraction in production, but rather with… interannual supply dynamicsIn 2025/26, shipments were boosted by the outflow of a robust previous crop (2024/25), raising the comparison base. However, in 2026/27, the lower production of the 2025/26 cycle reduces the availability of cotton for export, especially in the first months of the marketing season. This characteristic is evident in the seasonality of Australian exports: as indicated in the report, shipments between August and April are mostly supplied by stocks from the previous harvest, while the flow between May and July It depends on current production. China and Vietnam remain the main destinations for Australian cotton., together accounting for approximately 50% of exportsBangladesh and Indonesia appear as relevant secondary markets, with a share close to… 10% eachA recent highlight is the increase in exports to India, which have gone from negligible volumes to approximately… 20% of shipments in the first half of 2025/26, driven by temporary measures to stimulate imports in the Asian country.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.